India's Post-Lockdown Nightmare Comes to Life
Plus, more on the ongoing tensions between India and China along the Line of Actual Control
Hi there, I’m Aman Thakker. Welcome to Indialogue, a newsletter analyzing the biggest policy developments in India. The aim of this newsletter is to provide you with quality analysis every week on what’s going on in India.
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India is “Unlocking,” But The Pandemic Continues to Rage
A few weeks ago, this newsletter discussed how India had began the process to “Unlock” after a nationwide lockdown that had been in place since March 24. This step - reopening parts of outdoor life and the economy in a staggered manner - was not, on its surface, all too different from the decisions of several other countries. However, a graph of India’s growth in cases clearly showed what was different for India. India was reopening despite a growth in the number of COVID-19 cases, with all indications that the curve had not been flattened, and India’s peak in the number of cases remained a few weeks out.
Since June 8, the government has allowed restaurants, hotels, shopping malls, and places of worship being to re-open with social distancing guidelines. However, cases have continued to surge. India now ranks fourth in the world in terms of number of total cases of COVID-19, and half of India’s total deaths have occurred in just the last three weeks, underscoring how the virus is continuing to spread.
The cities of Delhi and Mumbai have been particularly hard hit. In Mumbai, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation’s COVID-19 Response War Room states that of a total ICU bed capacity of 1,206, only 17 are available, while the rest are occupied. Moreover, of the 532 ventilators in Mumbai hospital, only 12 are not in use.
In Delhi, reporting by Stephanie Findlay and Jyotsna Singh of The Financial Times found that there was severe under-reporting of cases, and the situation may be more dire than the government is claiming. They report that, out of Delhi’s 15 total hospitals, only five provided them with data, and that:
The five hospitals, which responded to Financial Times requests for information on condition of anonymity, suffered at least 577 confirmed coronavirus fatalities as of June 1. The death toll rose to 654 when suspected cases — those patients who showed symptoms but died without testing — were also included. The figures from these five hospitals alone exceeded the state government’s official tally of 523 deaths across the entire New Delhi national capital territory up until June 1.
The story only continues to be more grim from here. A doctor at Lok Nayak Hospital says that while a normal week sees two or three fatalities a week, the number now looks like three or four a day. Estimates suggest that Delhi needs 10 times as many beds as it has now. At the national level, researchers find that, if you consider data from the National Health Profile 2019, “government hospitals will run out of beds in the rural parts if 0.03% of the rural population is infected by coronavirus.”
In response, the central and state governments are beginning its push to create more capacity. The Delhi government has set a target of increasing its total bed capacity from its current 9,802 to 15,000 by June 30. The center has announced that it will provide the Delhi government with 500 railway coaches as “temporary isolation beds,” adding capacity of 8,000 beds. Nationwide, government authorities are turning “stadiums, banquet halls, hotels and unused train cars into field hospitals or isolation facilities.”
These developments beg the question: why are these efforts taking place so late, and why didn’t the government use the time when India had a low number of cases, or when the nation was on lockdown, to increase bed and ventilator capacity? Clearly, even those outside of government could tell that India’s would see a spike in cases, or that the curve was not flattening. Unfortunately, just like India’s inability to boost testing capacity, it seems like, in bed and ventilator capacity too, the government did not use the past few months to prepare for the ongoing surge.
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The Latest on the Ongoing India-China Border Stand-offs
Following the June 6 meeting of high-level military leaders from India and China to discussion tensions along the LAC, there has been a lot of developments, but still a lot that we don’t know. Asian News International cited government sources to say that “Troops and infantry combat vehicles moved back by 2.5 km by People’s Liberation Army in Galwan area, Patrolling Point 15 and Hot Springs area.”
Nitin Gokhale, a well-known and well-renowned defense expert, then outlined a roadmap or framework for de-escalation, which discussed disengagement at the same points (Galwan, PP-15, Hot Springs), and outlined why Pangong Tso continued to be a tricker situation to resolve immediately. While he outlined the roadmap, I should make it clear here that this based in his reporting and conversations with sources. It is still too early to tell whether this is exactly what has happened/will happen on the ground. Here is Nitin breaking down the roadmap:
By June 13th, India’s Chief of Army Staff, General MM Naravane, made the first public remarks regarding the deescalation on the border. It’s been hard to find an exact transcript, so I’m pulling largely from here and here to highlight what the COAS has said:
I would like to assure everyone that the entire situation along our borders with China is under control. We are having a series of talks which started with Corps Commander level talks which was followed up with meetings at the local level between commanders of equivalent ranks.
As a result a lot of disengagement has taken place and we are hopeful that through the continued dialogue that we are having, all perceived differences that we (India and China) have will be set to rest.
Both sides are disengaging in a phased manner. We have started from the north, from the area of the Galwan river where a lot of disengagement has taken place. It has been a very fruitful dialogue that we have had. And as I said it will go on and the situation will improve as we go on.
To sum up, I’ll cite Sushant Singh from The Indian Express:
For more on India-China relations and the ongoing border stand-offs, check out these expert voices:
Amb. Shivshankar Menon, former National Security Advisor and Foreign Secretary of India, in conversation with Karan Thapar: “Fmr NSA Menon—If Reports True, this is Massive Escalation by China to Fundamentally Alter Status Quo”
Dhruva Jaishankar, Director of the U.S. Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation, in his latest publication: “In India’s China policy, a mix of three approaches”
Lt. Gen. H. S. Panag (Retd.), former General Officer Commanding-in-Chief (GOC-in-C) of the Northern Command and Central Command of the Indian Army, in conversation with Dr. Happymon Jacob, Professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University: India – China Border Tensions : Differing Perceptions Theory is a Chinese Ploy
Ananth Krishan, journalist at The Hindu, and his in-depth primer on the India-China border: “Line of Actual Control | India-China: the line of actual contest”
Amb. Shyam Saran, former Foreign Secretary of India, in conversation with Yamini Aiyer, President of the Center for Policy Research: “Episode 44: The Future of India-China Relations”
A Response to Sanjaya Baru
This week, Sanjaya Baru, former advisor to former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, made some comments which, putting it mildly, were deeply prejudicial. In a post for The Wire, he originally said:
One consequence of Indian Americans and non-resident Indians increasingly populating academia and think tanks in the United States has been that a growing body of studies on India come from their stable, with less output from ‘true blue’ or ‘white’ American scholars.
As an Indian analyst I would prefer to understand how foreigners view India rather than how overseas Indians view India
He went on to lament that:
“More recently, most scholarly publications on India in the US come with Indian names. This is a pity, since we in India would like to read how ‘real’ Americans perceive and interpret India.”
The Wire updated these paragraphs to tone-down the frankly racist sentiments in his comments, but even the updated version (available here) wasn’t great.
I thought long and hard about Baru’s comments, and whether they even deserve a response. I’m choosing to respond because these comments are deeply personal to me. I’m one of non-resident Indians that Baru is complaining about. I maintain my Indian citizenship while I live in the U.S., and have dedicated a large part of my professional and academic career to studying India. I also maintain an adjunct position with an American think tank, contributing, from my “stable” to the “body of studies” on India.
Baru’s comments are incredibly insensitive on two levels. First, that Indian-Americans don’t count as “true blue” or “real” Americans, and therefore their writings and insights are less valuable. Secondly, Baru also puts down NRIs, or Indian citizens who are members of the diaspora, who write on India (such as me), claiming my that views are less of interest to him than a potential “Adam Thatcher” because scholarly publications with “Indian names” just aren’t worth it.
I can’t begin to describe how worthy of contempt such views are. Baru seems to be suggesting that one’s race, rather than the quality of one’s ideas, is of greater importance to him when it comes to research on India. Such views frankly betray a deeply racist view of how one considers the work being conducted on India in D.C. and beyond, and an ignorant, nativist view of Indian-American citizenship. My friend Anand Raghuraman also pushes back against Baru in this great Twitter thread.
Baru later doubled down on his views on Twitter, suggesting that perhaps we didn’t appreciate his “non-PC plainspeak.” I think Dr. Vipin Narang responded best:
More India Newsletter Recommendations
One of the real joys of writing this newsletter is to be able to connect with fellow travelers in the newslettering journey. Each of us comes at India from a different perspective, and it’s really amazing to see the varied perspectives, issues, and topics people cover. I shared a list of such newsletters (and other resources!) previously, but wanted to add two more that I hope you will consider subscribing to:
Lou Del Bello and “Lights On,” which comes out every Thursday, and gives you the latest on the climate, energy and business debate in India and beyond.
Pranay Kotasthane and Raghu Sanjaylal Jaitley’s “Anticipating the Unintended,” which sends out a weekly “public policy thought-letter” that unpacks the “frameworks, mental models, and key ideas that will hopefully help you think about any public policy problem in imaginative ways.”
In Other News
Nepal’s Pratinidhi Sabha (or House of Representatives) unanimously passed Second Constitution Amendment Bill, providing legal status for the its updated political map of Nepal which includes areas such as Limpiyadhura, Kalapani, and Lipulekh as its own territory. India, which claims these areas as under the jurisdiction of Uttarakhand state’s Pithoragarh district, took note of the development, and said “we have already made our position clear on this matter. This artificial enlargement of claims is not based on historical fact or evidence and is not tenable.”
India and Denmark signed a Memorandum of Understanding to “develop a strong, deep and long-term co-operation between two countries in the power sector.”
India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to above $500 billion for the first time. Reports indicate that the reserves grew due to an influx of U.S. dollars following the conclusion of separate deals involving Reliance Jio and Airtel. The Indian Express noted that the rise in foreign exchange reserves is “a big cushion in the event of any crisis on the economic front and enough to cover the import bill of the country for a year.”
Vice Admiral Biswajit Dasguptat took charge as Chief of Staff of the Eastern Naval Command, based out of Visakhapatnam. He took over the role from Admiral S.N. Ghormade.
Three to Read
From cogent analysis to potentially big news that you should keep an eye on, here are a few commentaries and other pieces of writing that I found particularly enlightening.
Dr. Constantino Xavier, Fellow at Brookings India, answers 15 questions about the India-Nepal border dispute: “The bilateral crisis seems to now be stuck in a stalemate, a worrisome trend in otherwise friendly India-Nepal relations. Dr. Constantino Xavier, Fellow, Brookings India, answers some of the key questions on the crisis, the possible factors that escalated the dispute, the geostrategic context, and ways to de-escalate towards a solution.”
Amitendu Palit, Senior Economic and Trade Policy Research Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies in the National University of Singapore, argues: “India’s withdrawal from RCEP is a turning point in its trade engagement. It reflects the profound influence of inward-looking mindsets on its current trade policy, making India’s trade outlook more circumspect and selectively engaging. Premising trade engagement on bilateral trade balances, specific national interests (including geopolitical), and circumstantial opportunities, like those arising from COVID19, make national trade policies become disconnected from market forces that drive economic development towards more efficient outcomes. Several countries, though, are currently preferring to disconnect from market signals by reorganizing their trade policies around national interests. In that context, India is no exception.”
Joanna Slater, India bureau chief for The Washington Post writes on whether India can lead the way in creating a “low-carbon future”: “In the coming years, India will need policies that not only lower pollution and carbon emissions but also create jobs for its growing workforce. In that regard, the spread of electric rickshaws is instructive. While India has struggled to increase the number of electric cars on the roads, battery-powered rickshaws have flourished with little help from the government and without any kind of charging infrastructure.”
Thanks for reading this latest edition of Indialogue. Please let me know if you have any thoughts or feedback by emailing me at aman@amanthakker.com.