Hi there, I’m Aman Thakker. Welcome to Indialogue, a newsletter analyzing the biggest policy developments in India. The aim of this newsletter is to provide you with quality analysis every week on what’s going on in India.
As I mentioned last week, this will be a very short version of the newsletter I usually send out. We’ll return to the regular format next week. Apologies again!
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India Emerges From Lockdown, But Not Without Risks
India’s lockdown, in place since March 24 and extended thrice since, looks like it may be coming to an end in a phased manner. The first phase, known as “Unlock 1” will include restaurants, hotels, shopping malls, and places of worship being allowed to re-open beginning June 8, followed by plans to resume in-person teaching could resume in schools and college by early July.
However, it is clear that looking at the data, India’s re-opening is not because infections rates have come down significantly, or because the curve has been flattened. Rather, cases are continuing to grow, with nearly 8,000 new cases of COVID-19 reported in India on Saturday, May 30. In total India has recorded 174,301 cases and nearly 4,981 deaths.
Let’s be clear: India has not been as hard hit as many other countries, and a large part of that is, as epidemiologists have noted, due to India’s strict lockdown. However, cases have begun to surge in recent days and weeks. India’s doubling rate for cases has now reached an average of 12 days (similar to Brazil), and public health experts suggest India could peak at the end of July.
So, why is the lockdown being eased up now? The government has pointed to economic factors, with Shiv Dutt Gupta, a member of a government task force who helped craft the lockdown exit plan, saying “We will be devastated economically” if the lockdown continues.
What does this mean? The outstanding questions now remain on whether or India’s public health system can manage this continued growth in infection rates, likely to only increase as India emerges from lockdown, until July? The way to have done this is if India had used the lockdown to truly ramp up capacity in key hotspots so that it was ready to manage the post-lockdown surge. While doctors like Dr. Naresh Trehan stress that the “two months of lockdown has helped us fine-tune our treatment protocols, our isolation protocols, our quarantine protocols,” one need only look at India’s inability to ramp up testing, which remains woefully low when compared to other countries, to recognize that India may not yet have made the requisite investments on hospital and treatment capacity as it looks to “unlock.”
All this leads me to believe that we can’t yet conclusively say that India will be able to manage the rise to the peak, much less the peak itself. India is not out of the woods yet.
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A Brief Self-Promotion Interlude
Last week, I had the opportunity to join Ankit Panda, Senior Editor at The Diplomat and author of upcoming book Kim Jong Un and the Bomb, for a podcast on India’s economic response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
In particular, we discuss the AtmaNirbhar Bharat package, self-reliance & protectionism under PM Modi, and whether India can really entice manufacturing firms to relocate from China to India.
Please tune into our conversation if you are interested.
In Other News
The General Administration of Customs of China and the Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs announced that China “is set to ban imports of pigs, wild boar and related products from India in an effort to prevent African swine fever (ASF) and ensure the safety of China’s animal husbandry.” However, the Global Times, the Communist Party-run mouthpiece, was quick to note in a piece in their English website that “the ban comes after tensions between the two countries flared up in Galwan Valley region,” blaming India for its “recent, illegal construction of defense facilities on the border to Chinese territory.”
The Indian Ministry of Railways has called for “proper planning and coordination” among Indian states in the operation of the specially-run Shramik trains to transport stranded migrant workers back home. This notice came after Indian Railways was criticized for not planning ahead for congestion in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, where a majority of trains are running, leading to massive delays (without food and water for passengers) and re-routing of trains. The Railways were also criticized for several deaths on board the trains, including nine passengers which died in a span of 48 hours.
India’s Defense Minister, Rajnath Singh, spoke on the phone with U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper on May 29. The discussion included exchanging perspectives on their respective approaches to COVID-19, pending bilateral defense cooperation initiatives, and “regional developments of shared security interest,” likely a hint at ongoing developments between India and China along the Line of Actual Control.
I should note here that there was another U.S.-India call in the news this week, but for a different reason. Trump, in an interaction with reporters last week said: “They have a big conflict going with India and China. Two countries with 1.4 billion people. Two countries with very powerful militaries. And India is not happy, and probably China is not happy. But I can tell you, I did speak to Prime Minister Modi. He’s not — he’s not in a good mood about what’s going on with China.” Full transcript here.
However, unnamed Indian sources told media outlets off-the-record that “There has been no recent contact between PM Modi and President Trump… The last conversation between them was on April 4, on the subject of hydroxychloroquine.”
Uber India laid off nearly 600 employees in India, nearly 25% of its staff. These cuts include drivers, rider support, as well as other functions. This announcement came days after Ola, its ride-sharing competitor in India, announced it would lay off 1,400 employees in India.
The Indian Air Force inducted the indigenous Tejas Mk-1’s Full Operational Clearance (FOC) configuration, manufactured by Hindustan Aeronautics, into the newly resurrected No. 18 Squadron, known as the “Flying Bullets,” based out of Air Force Station Sulur.
Three to Read
From cogent analysis to potentially big news that you should keep an eye on, here are a few commentaries and other pieces of writing that I found particularly enlightening.
Darshana Baruah, nonresident scholar with the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a visiting fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Tokyo, writes: “As India and Australia prepare for a virtual summit next month between prime ministers amid the novel coronavirus pandemic, a possible strategic initiative could involve the cooperative use of their respective island territories in the Indian Ocean for strategic purposes. India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Australia’s Cocos (Keeling) Islands are well positioned to offer significant advantages for both countries.”
Benjamin Parkin, Anjli Raval, Nic Fildes, and Richard Waters, all of the Financial Times, report: “Google is exploring an investment in Vodafone’s struggling India business in a move that could pit the US internet group in a battle against Facebook for the world’s fastest-growing mobile market, according to people familiar with the matter. One of the people said Google was considering buying stake of about 5 per cent in Vodafone Idea, a partnership between the UK telecoms company and India’s Aditya Birla Group that has been under severe financial strain. Another said the process was at a very early stage.”
Amb. Hemant Krishan Singh and Brig. (retd) Arun Sahgal, both from Delhi Policy Group, have published a paper on the ongoing stand-off between India and China at various points at the Line of Actual Control, noting: “The scenario on the ground is that the Chinese have constructed new fortifications in the Pangong lake area and concentrated a sizeable force of troops in the Galwan Valley where they are fortifying their positions, including by moving heavy equipment and artillery, albeit in their own territory. The PLA has also stepped up air activity in the area. While there are speculative reports of large concentrations of PLA forces in the area (approximately 5,000), knowledgeable sources indicate that the numbers are far less. India has of course sent reinforcements to both areas in Ladakh and as of now an explosive situation prevails.”
Thanks for reading this latest edition of Indialogue. Please let me know if you have any thoughts or feedback by emailing me at aman@amanthakker.com.