India Launches Its Vaccination Campaign
India's drive to inoculate it's citizens will be the world's largest vaccine campaign
Hi there, I’m Aman Thakker. Welcome to Indialogue, a newsletter analyzing the biggest policy developments in India. The aim of this newsletter is to provide you with quality analysis every week on what’s going on in India.
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India Launches Its Vaccination Campaign
On Saturday, January 16, India launched it campaign to vaccinate its population against the virus that causes COVID-19 - a campaign that will emerge as the largest vaccination campaign and will affect the trajectory of how other developing countries will vaccinate their own populations.
If you have been following this newsletter for the past few weeks, you have seen the government lay the groundwork for this campaign. The Prime Minister met with leaders of India’s major political parties to brief them on the central government’s plan to vaccinate India’s population. Nearly 10 days ago, the Minister for Health and Family Welfare, Dr. Harsh Vardhan, oversaw a “dry-run” for India’s vaccine distribution in 736 districts across the nation. This week, the Prime Minister held a videoconference with the Chief Ministers and Administrators of all of India’s states and Union Territories.
India has also approved two vaccines for use in its vaccine campaign. The first vaccine is Covishied, a version of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine that is being manufactured locally in India by the Serum Institute of India. The second is Covaxin, manufactured by the Indian company Bharat BioTech. However, controversy has followed the decision to approve the latter of these vaccines. While Covishield has completed its Phase III trials and reported an efficacy rate of ~62%, Covaxin remains in Phase III trials and there is no publicly available data on how effective it is. Complicating matters further is that the government has reserved use of Covaxin for “clinical trial mode,” leading public health experts to raise questions about what such a mode actually means.
India has ordered 16 million doses of both vaccines, according to reporting from The Washington Post, and both vaccines can be stored without ultracold storage (required by the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, which have been approved in other countries).
The first day of India’s vaccine campaign saw 3,006 vaccination sites across India come online at 10:30a.m., with information about vaccine stocks, storage temperature and individualized tracking of beneficiaries integrated into the Government of India’s Co-WIN portal, developed and operated by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.
Much like other countries, India will vaccinate its population according to a priority list, within which the first group will include medical professionals and other frontline workers (specifically police and paramilitary, home guards, disaster management volunteers and other professionals from the government’s civil defense and revenue functions that are directly working with COVID-19 containment and surveillance processes). Following this group, the next group will include those above 50 years of age, and those below 50 years of age with comorbidities or with high risk of infection.
India has set some ambitious targets for its vaccine campaign. Prime Minister Modi announced, in his meeting with India’s Chief Ministers, that India would vaccine 30 crore (300 million) people in the next few months. The first step towards that number would be vaccinating 300,000 people on the first day itself. However, the government found itself falling short of this last target - the data shows that India vaccinated 191,181 individuals, which is certainly a high number, but short by 108,819.
The second day saw a much lower number than the first day, with 17,072 people vaccinated on Sunday, January 17. A state-by-state breakdown for the second day was released by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare:
Local reporting of the vaccine campaign has largely confirmed that Indians have welcomed the vaccines, with celebrations oftentimes erupting at hospitals where the vaccines have been delivered. However, there has been some unease as well. Although the Prime Minister told Indian citizens in an address to the nation to strictly ignore “rumors about the safety of vaccines,” questions about the Covaxin vaccine have continued to crop up. Individuals receiving Covaxin have reportedly been given consent forms to sign before they are inoculated that state that the the vaccine’s “clinical efficacy has yet to be established.” Reporters have written about how “resident doctors of Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital on Saturday demanded that they be given the Covishield vaccine instead of Covaxin” and that “at JJ Hospital in Mumbai… 100 people were called to receive the Bharat Biotech vaccine, but only 39 arrived.”
However, it remains too early to draw any conclusions about vaccine skepticism when it comes to Covaxin. A survey on global acceptance of a COVID-19 vaccine found that Indians responded higher than citizens of several other countries that they were either somewhat or very likely to take a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine.
The wider implications of India’s vaccination campaign will be on its ability to scale up manufacturing to continue its role as the world’s pharmacist and distribute vaccines to other developing countries. As part of an agreement between the Serum Institute of India, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and the Covid-19 Vaccines Global Access Facility, the Serum Institute will help produce nearly 100 million vials of the Oxford-AstraZeneca Covishied to be distributed to 60 countries in Africa and Asia.
As of writing, India had registered 10,557,985 confirmed cases of COVID-19, and 152,274 deaths. How India manages the future trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country, and in the wider developing world, will depend on how it progresses on its vaccination campaign.
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Supreme Court of India Suspends Implementation of Controversial Farm Laws
In September, the Indian Parliament passed three bills aimed at reforming India’s agriculture sector. The bills, which have now been enacted into law, are briefly described below (you can read a more in-depth analysis of these laws from this September 21, 2020 edition of Indialogue):
The Farmers' Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Act, which is aimed at providing farmers the option to sell their produce outside of the mandis, or stores, that are regulated by the Agricultural Produce Market Committee, which are state-government bodies aimed at protecting farmers from exploitation.
The Farmers (Empowerment and Protection) Agreement on Price Assurance and Farm Services Act, which allows farmers to opt into contract farming should they chose. Under this mode, farmers would sign contracts with companies, who would purchase only specific produce in exchange for payment, and
The Essential Commodities (Amendment) Act, which allows great flexibility in stocking food produce, thereby assuaging fears that such stocking could lead to prosecution for hoarding of foodstuffs
The passage of the bills sparked protests by farmers along the borders of Delhi, issuing demands that the acts be repealed.
On January 12, the Supreme Court of India suspended the implementation of the acts. However, the court, in its decision, did not examining the constitutionality of the laws or whether Parliament overstepped its mandate in passing the laws. The rationale, instead, was to “assuage the hurt feelings of the farmers and encourage them to come to the negotiating table with confidence and good faith.”
The Supreme Court has also constituted a four-member panel that is charged with understanding the grievances and demands of the protesting farmers, and submit a list of recommendations to the government.
While protesting farmers have welcomed the decision to halt implementation of the laws, they have continued to protest and stated their intention to refuse to meet with the panel.
The panel was slated to include:
Bhupinder Singh Mann, National President, Bhartiya Kisan Union and All India Kisan Coordination Committee,
Pramod Kumar Joshi, agricultural economist, director for South Asia, International Food Policy Research Institute,
Ashok Gulati, agricultural economist and former chairman of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices, and
Anil Ghanwat, president, Shetkari Sanghatana, a Maharashtra-based farmer body.
However, as Sruthisagar Yamunan & Rohan Venkataramakrishnan of Scroll.in have reported, all four members have a record of speaking out in favor of the enacted laws:
Bhupinder Singh Mann met the Union Agriculture Minister in December 2020, handing over a memorandum that demanded implementation of the laws, with a few safeguards that had already been considered by the government.
Pramod Joshi in December 2020 co-wrote an op-ed saying farmers are “changing the goalposts before every negotiation” and that “any dilution in the farm laws will constrain Indian agriculture to harness emerging global opportunities”.
Ashok Gulati welcomed the laws when they were first promulgated as ordinances in May 2020, saying they showed “a willingness to walk the right path [that] deserves compliments” and likening them to a “1991 moment of economic reforms for agriculture”.
Anil Ghanwat’s Shetkari Sanghatana has rallied in support of the laws and insisted that the government should not bend to “pressure from farmers in just two states.”
Per the Supreme Court’s order, the panel is slated to begin their work on January 19. However, pressure from farmers and allegations of lack of impartiality has led to at least one of the members of the panel - Bhupinder Singh Mann - to withdraw from the panel.
What happens next? It remains to be soon. The next move will likely come after the Supreme Court hears a case on January 18 on the Modi-led government’s demand for an injunction against a planned protests by farmers on January 26, when India celebrates its Republic Day.
News Roundup
The dates for the 2021 Budget Session of India’s Parliament were announced on January 14, with the first half of the Budget Session opening with the President of India’s address on January 29, and continuing until February 15. Following a recess until March 8, the second half of the Budget Session will be held until April 8.
The British High Commission in New Delhi issued a statement on January 17, announcing that U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson had invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend the 2021 G7 slated to be held in Cornwall, United Kingdom, from June 11 to 13. The visit comes just over a week after Johnson announced he would not be attending India’s Republic Day celebrations, where he was slated to be the Chief Guest, due to the new wave of COVID-19 in the U.K.
The Cabinet approved the purchase of 73 Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas Mk-1A fighter aircrafts and 10 LCA Tejas Mk-1 Trainer aircrafts at the cost of Rs. 45,696 crore ($6.24 billion). The LCA Tejas is indigenously designed, developed and manufactured fourth-generation aircraft manufactured by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). The aircraft “will be equipped with Active Electronically Scanned Array Radar, Beyond Visual Range Missile, Electronic Warfare Suite, and Air to Air Refuelling.”
The Cabinet approved a Memorandum of Understanding between India’s Ministry of Earth Sciences and the United Arab Emirates’ National Centre of Meteorology to promote cooperation in the fields of meteorological, seismological and oceanic services.
The Indian Navy conducted the second edition of the biennial coastal defense exercise SEA VIGIL 21, dubbed the largest coastal defense exercise. The exercise is an important component of India’s revised approach to coastal security in the aftermath of the 26/11 terrorist attack in Mumbai, and saw the participation of all 13 coastal States and Union Territories in India. The exercise will also build up towards the major Theatre level exercise TROPEX (short for Theatre-level Readiness Operational Exercise), which the Indian Navy conducts every two years.
The Reserve Bank of India established a Working Group on the issue of digital lending, particularly lending through online platforms and mobile apps. The six-member working group is tasked with, “evaluating digital lending activities and assess the penetration and standards of outsourced digital lending activities in RBI regulated entities,” “identifying risks posed by unregulated digital lending to financial stability, regulated entities and consumers,” and “suggesting regulatory changes, if any, to promote orderly growth of digital lending”
The Foreign Minister of Nepal, Pradeep Kumar Gyawali, visited India on January 15-16.
The primary purpose of his visit was to participate in the Sixth India-Nepal Joint Commission Meeting. The meeting was co-chaired on the Indian side by Minister of External Affairs Dr. S. Jaishankar, and comprehensively reviewed “all aspects of multifaceted cooperation between the two countries,” including issues such as “connectivity, economy and trade, power, oil and gas, water resources, political and security issues, border management, development partnership, tourism, culture, education and capacity building.
Minister Gyawali also met with India’s Defense Minister Rajnath Singh to discuss military-to-military cooperation, and India’s offer to provide humanitarian assistance & disaster relief (HADR) training & capacity building to Nepal.
The Parliamentary Consultative Committee of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry held a meeting on India’s “New Foreign Trade Policy, 2021-2026” on January 12. The meeting provided inputs into the creation of the new Foreign Trade Policy, which will go into effect on April 1, 2021.
The Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Shaktikanta Das, said recently that the central bank is “open to examining” proposals to set up a “bad bank” - a single, state-owned entity that would hold all of India’s non-performing assets.
Four to Read…
From cogent analysis to potentially big news that you should keep an eye on, here are a few commentaries and other pieces of writing that I found particularly enlightening:
Dr. Joshua White, associate professor of the practice of South Asia studies at The Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and a nonresident fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, writes: “The U.S.-India defense and security relationship has continued to deepen, aided by robust political commitments in both countries and converging concern about growing Chinese assertiveness across the Indo-Pacific. The United States and India have expanded their defense activities and consultations, and recently concluded two additional so-called “foundational defense agreements,” capping off a nearly two-decade effort by U.S. policymakers to formalize the legal sinews of operational defense cooperation. This positive trajectory is, however, by no means guaranteed to continue apace. There are rising concerns in the United States about India’s fiscal limitations, its ties with Russia, its ponderous response to a pattern of Chinese provocations on its border, and its drift toward illiberal majoritarian politics.”
Dr. Kate Sullivan de Estrada, Associate Professor, International Relations of South Asia at the University of Oxford, argues: “The next two years will see India move into a critical period of high-profile international activity, both as an elected member of the UN Security Council and as host of the 2023 G20 Summit. India can leverage these positions of influence to centre a more demanding vision of internationalism that disrupts the civilisational and racialised hierarchies that linger from Europe’s imperial era. But to do that, India needs the critical and normative resources to inspire greater equality, legitimacy and inclusivity in the international sphere. For as long as India practises domination at home, those resources, desperately needed to push through urgent reforms of the global order, will be clear to no one.”
Dr. Milan Vaishnav, senior fellow and director of the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Dr. Madhav Khosla, associate professor of political science at Ashoka University and Ambedkar Visiting Associate Professor of Law at Columbia University, write: “For more than seven decades, India’s Constitution has provided a framework for liberal democracy to flourish in one of the world’s most diverse societies. Legal changes and shifts in bureaucratic practices, however, have undermined central tenets of the prevailing order. In today’s India, the assent of the people is both necessary and sufficient to justify all forms of state action. This article outlines three manifestations of India’s new constitutionalism—the “ethnic state,” the “absolute state,” and the “opaque state.” These distinct, yet overlapping faces of the Indian state have undermined the rule of law, equal citizenship, checks and balances, and democratic accountability.”
Dr. Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Distinguished Fellow and Head of the Nuclear and Space Policy Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation, writes: “Bangladesh has expressed interest in joining the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway project. Bangladesh made the overture at the recent virtual India-Bangladesh summit between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in December 2020. For both trade and strategic reasons, creating connectivity can be beneficial to both India and Bangladesh, but it’s yet to be seen how the post-COVID-19 economy will affect the implementation of such investments.”
… and One to Listen To
Sushant Singh, Senior Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, speaks with Pavan Srinath, a public policy researcher and podcaster based in Bangalore, about the India-China conflict in Ladakh, eight months in: Sushant shares what it takes for the Indian Army to deploy between 50 and 60,000 troops on the Line of Actual Control in Eastern Ladakh and maintaining a winter deployment. He also discusses the challenges faced by soldiers living through the winter in altitudes going up to 18,000 feet, with blistering winds and little to no prior infrastructure. The conversation also includes an eye on the future, on how the India-China conflict could pan out in 2021 and what kind of strategic implications it could have for India. Listen here.
Thank you for reading this latest edition of Indialogue. Please let me know if you have any thoughts or feedback by emailing me at aman@amanthakker.com.