After Shots Fired and a Five-Point Consensus, What Lies Ahead at the LAC?
The India-China stand-off remains at a serious crossroads.
Hi there, I’m Aman Thakker. Welcome to Indialogue, a newsletter analyzing the biggest policy developments in India. The aim of this newsletter is to provide you with quality analysis every week on what’s going on in India.
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After a Five-Point Consensus, All Eyes on the Line of Actual Control
The ongoing tensions between India and China along the Line of Actual control have been through a rollercoaster in the last few weeks. For the first time since 1975, shots have fired along the LAC, with both sides blaming each other for firing warning shots on the night of September 7. However, days later, on September 10, the Indian and Chinese foreign ministers met in Moscow on the sidelines of a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and reached an agreement of a five-point consensus for disengagement at the LAC. While the situation has been largely calm since that meeting, things remain tense.
Let’s review where things are at, and where things might be headed.
Following maneuvers in the North and South Bank of Pangong Tso between August 29th and August 31st, the firing of weapons marked the a serious deterioration in the the stand-off that has been going on since at least May 5, 2020.
India and China have presented differing versions of what happened on the night of September 7, when the shots were fired. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army alleged that:
“On September 7, the Indian army illegally crossed the LAC and entered the south bank of Pangong Lake and the Shenpao mountain area in the the western section of the Sino-Indian border… [Indian troops] outrageously fired shots on Chinese border patrols soldiers who were about to negotiate… The Indian side's move seriously violated related agreements reached by both sides, stirred up tensions in the region, and would easily cause misunderstandings and misjudgments, which is a serious military provocation and is very vile in nature.”
India has rejected this version of events, saying that the firing of shots, which took place near Mukhpari peak, was because Chinese troops crossed the line. The Indian Army statement stated that:
“In the instant case on September 7, it was the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops who attempted to close in with one of our forward positions along the LAC, and when dissuaded by our own troops, the PLA troops fired a few rounds in the air in an attempt to intimidate our troops. However, despite the grave provocation, own troops exercised great restraint and behaved in a mature and responsible manner… At no stage has the Indian Army transgressed across the LAC or resorted to use of any aggressive means, including firing.
A map from The Economist showing the location of Mukhpari peak is shown here:
However, all eyes then turned to a meeting between India’s External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar and China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who were scheduled to meet in Moscow on September 10. Their meeting, which lasted over two hours, resulted in a “five-point consensus” to ensure disengagement of Indian and Chinese troops at the LAC.
The five-point consensus, as agreed to by both Ministers, is as follows:
1. The two Ministers agreed that both sides should take guidance from the series of consensus of the leaders on developing India-China relations, including not allowing differences to become disputes.
2. The two Foreign Ministers agreed that the current situation in the border areas is not in the interest of either side. They agreed therefore that the border troops of both sides should continue their dialogue, quickly disengage, maintain proper distance and ease tensions.
3. The two Ministers agreed that both sides shall abide by all the existing agreements and protocol on China-India boundary affairs, maintain peace and tranquillity in the border areas and avoid any action that could escalate matters.
4. The two sides also agreed to continue to have dialogue and communication through the Special Representative mechanism on the India-China boundary question. They also agreed in this context that the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China border affairs (WMCC), should also continue its meetings.
5. The Ministers agreed that as the situation eases, the two sides should expedite work to conclude new Confidence Building Measures to maintain and enhance peace and tranquillity in the border areas.
Since the meeting, and the agreement of this consensus, reporting from India has suggested that the situation at the border has been largely quiet, with little reported movement on either side. However, a disengagement has not yet taken place, and all eyes are now on a sixth round of meetings between Corps Commanders, which was slated to begin on Monday (today) morning IST. In a first, Joint Secretary (East Asia) from India’s Ministry of External Affairs, Naveen Srivastava, is slated to participate in this meeting (previous meeting did not include participation from diplomats).
In advance of the meeting, The China Study Group, headed by National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, met in New Delhi on Friday. The focus, according to sources who spoke to Krishn Kaushik of The Indian Express, remains on areas of friction where Indian and Chinese troops are eyeball-to-eyeball, such as the North and South banks of Pangong Tso.
While the hope that this latest round of meetings between the Corps Commanders will result in a breakthrough, experts from India have suggested that India is preparing for the long haul. India is reportedly “racing to complete advance winter stocking in forward locations and build habitat for the thousands of additional troops deployed in high altitude areas along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).” Beyond the border standoff, experts have also said that the wider relationship - already suffering from a trust deficit after the violent clashes in the Galwan Valley which saw casualties on both sides - is under incredible stress.
The open question, therefore, is if India-China relations cannot, and do not, go back to business as normal, what does that mean for not just for maintaining peace and tranquility along the LAC, but the future trajectory of the wider relationship?
Expert Voices:
Sushant Singh, former Strategic Affairs Editor of The Indian Express: Can India Transcend Its Two-Front Challenge?
Dr. Devesh Kapur, Director of Asia programmes at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies: India and China are edging towards a more serious conflict
Suhasini Haider, National Editor and Diplomatic Affairs Editor at The Hindu interviews Amb. Ashok Kantha, Director at the Institute of China Studies, and Dr. Tanvi Madan, senior fellow at the Brookings Institutions: Is the Quad rising after China’s challenge at the LAC?
Lt. Gen. D.S. Hooda (retd.), former Northern Army Commander: In LAC talks, from peace to conflict prevention
Amb. Nirupama Rao, former Foreign Secretary of India, in an interview to The Wire China: “Given the fact that India and China are two of the biggest countries in Asia, questions of peace and security, and war and conflict between these two countries should be important, not only for the region, but for the rest of the world”
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Proposed Agricultural Reforms Elicit Praise and Protest
Both houses of India’s Parliament passed two ordinances this week aimed at reforming India’s agricultural sector.
The two ordinances are: The Farmers Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Ordinance, 2020, and The Farmers (Empowerment and Protection) Agreement on Price Assurance and Farm Services Ordinance, 2020
The first ordinance is aimed at providing farmers the option to sell their produce outside of the mandis, or stores, that are regulated by the Agricultural Produce Market Committee, which are state-government bodies aimed at protecting farmers from exploitation.
The second ordinance allows farmers to opt into contract farming should they chose. Under this mode, farmers would sign contracts with companies, who would purchase only specific produce in exchange for payment.
A third ordinance, which has only passed the Lok Sabha, or lower house of Parliament is The Essential Commodities (Amendment) Ordinance, 2020. This ordinance allows great flexibility in stocking food produce, thereby assuaging fears that such stocking could lead to prosecution for hoarding of foodstuffs.
Supporters of these measures have vociferously argued that this bill does not shut down APMCs, but expand choices for farmers, allowing them to sell to other buyers fi they believe that can get a better deal elsewhere.
Supporters also argue that these free-market reforms can unleash agriculture in India, increase earnings for farmers, and undermine the powers of intermediaries that have engaged in rent-seeking behavior.
However, opponents, particularly farmers from the states of Punjab and Haryana, have argued such moves undermine the role of the government to support farmers through a system of ensuring produce is purchased at government-mandated “minimum support prices.” Private deals would be under no obligation to provide such minimum prices, and could empower large or corporate farmers.
The passage of these ordinances has already created some political fallout. Cabinet members belonging to the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) allies in the state of Punjab, have resigned their roles, and the party is yet to take a decision on whether it will remain in an alliance with the BJP in Parliament. However, even if the SAD leaves the alliance, the BJP has a comfortable majority in Parliament.
Opposition parties and outside experts have also criticized the process of how the BJP-led government has introduced and passed these ordinances through Parliament, which involved forcing a voice vote on the bill despite motions by Opposition members to “vote by division,” which involves physically counting the votes of members.
A Brief Self-Promotional Interlude
Last week, I joined Dr. Kyle Gardner, an Associate at McLarty Associates and a non-resident scholar at the Sigur Center for Asian Studies at the George Washington University, to discuss the historical factors at play in the ongoing India-China standoff in Ladakh. We recorded a six-minute snippet of our discussion for the exciting new platform, ConversationSix, which hosts six-minute, shortform podcasts. You can listen to our conversation here.
I also spoke to Matt Ho, a reporter at South China Morning Post, about the ongoing India-China tensions, and its impact on the wider India-China relationship. Please read Matt’s article, and my comments, here.
News Roundup
India and the United States held a virtual meeting of the 10th Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) Group between the two countries. The two countries agreed to “strengthen our dialogue on defense technology cooperation by pursuing detailed planning and making measurable progress” on defense projects under the aegis of the DTTI.
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved asset monetization for POWERGRID, a Public Sector Undertaking under the administrative control of the Ministry of Power engaged in the business of power transmission. Under this approval to monetize assets, POWERGRID can monetize assets of more than Rs. 7000 crore ($952 million), to fund the new and under-construction capital projects.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar co-chaired the the ASEAN-India Ministerial Meeting, which saw the participation of Foreign Ministers of the ten ASEAN Member States and India. The foreign ministers reviewed bilateral cooperation in the areas of maritime cooperation, connectivity, education & capacity building and people-to-people contacts.
India is reportedly working with Israel and the United States on “next generation of emerging technologies, including a transparent, open, reliable and secure 5G communication network.”
Responding to a question in the Rajya Sabha (the Upper House of Parliament), Minister of State for Defense Shripad Naik said that “There have been 3186 incidents of Ceasefire Violations along Line of Control in Jammu region in this year (from 01 January to 07 September, 2020).”
India and Japan have signed an agreement to foster Reciprocal Provision of Supplies and Services between the armed forces of both countries, which will deepen interoperability, and foster deeper cooperation in bilateral training activities, United Nations Peacekeeping Operations, Humanitarian International Relief and other mutually agreed activities.
The U.S. branch of the Overseas Friends of the Bharatiya Janata Party has officially filed paperwork with the U.S. Department of Justice to register itself as a Foreign Agent under the Foreign Agent Registration Act.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar took part in the inaugural session of the intra-Afghan negotiations held in Doha on 12 September 2020. The Minister reinforced India’s position that “any peace process must be Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled, has to respect the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of Afghanistan and preserve the progress made in the establishment of a democratic Islamic Republic in Afghanistan.”
Three to Read
From cogent analysis to potentially big news that you should keep an eye on, here are a few commentaries and other pieces of writing that I found particularly enlightening:
Ronak Desai, associate at the Lakshmi Mittal and Family South Asia Institute at Harvard University, writes: “But the belief that a Joe Biden-led Democratic administration would threaten this progress — a perception that has garnered headlines in India and reportedly generated unease in Delhi — is a myth. The reality is that U.S.-India ties will flourish irrespective of who prevails in November. Biden, moreover, is uniquely well-suited to propel the relationship to even greater heights.”
Dr. Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Distinguished Fellow & Head, Nuclear & Space Policy Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation, argues: “China’s achievements in the space domain are indeed impressive but the increasingly contested geopolitics make space yet another arena for competition and rivalry. China’s actions will be closely watched and, in many respects, will fuel further rivalries in the Indo-Pacific.”
Andy Mukherjee, columnist at Bloomberg, writes: “Just when India should be presenting itself as an alternative to China by making it easy for enterprises to scale up, the Soviet-style statism that New Delhi discarded three decades ago is creeping back into politics, policies, and even court orders. The first step for course correction will be to listen to criticism, rather than dismiss concerns as sour grapes or fake news. Otherwise, India Inc. will consist of a handful of very large business islands surrounded by tiny atolls that will be first to go underwater in bad weather.”
Thanks for reading this latest edition of Indialogue. Please let me know if you have any thoughts or feedback by emailing me at aman@amanthakker.com.