India and China Disengage at Pangong Tso
The disengagement comes nearly nine months after the crisis in Eastern Ladakh began.
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India and China Disengage at Pangong Tso
Since at least May 5, 2020, Indian and Chinese troops have faced off against each other in several locations in Eastern Ladakh. Several edition of this newsletter have been focused on the trajectory of this crisis (you can see the full archive here).
However, nearly nine months after this crisis began, it seems like we may have the beginning of what may be a process to disengage troops from the friction points, beginning with Pangong Tso. If you thought that the language I used in that last sentence was tentative, that’s intentional. We are still very much in the early days of whatever is happening, and there is a lot we do not know. However, let’s dive into what we do currently know.
On February 11, 2021, Defense Minister Rajnath Singh made a speech before Parliament, breaking the news that India and China had reached an agreement to disengage at Pangong Tso. His full speech is available here, but here’s exactly what he said:
I am happy to inform the House today that as a result of our well thought out approach and sustained talks with the Chinese side, we have now been able to reach an agreement on disengagement in the North and South Bank of the Pangong Lake. It has also been agreed to convene the next meeting of the Senior Commanders within 48 hours after the complete disengagement in the Pangong Lake area so as to address and resolve all other remaining issues.
The agreement that we have been able to reach with the Chinese side for disengagement in the Pangong lake area envisages that both sides will cease their forward deployments in a phased, coordinated and verified manner. The Chinese side will keep its troop presence in the North Bank area to east of Finger 8.Reciprocally, the Indian troops will be based at their permanent base at Dhan Singh Thapa Post near Finger 3. A similar action would be taken in the South Bank area by both sides. These are mutual and reciprocal steps and any structures that had been built by both sides since April 2020 in both North and South Bank area will be removed and the landforms will be restored. It has also been agreed to have a temporary moratorium on military activities by both sides in the North Bank, including patrolling to the traditional areas. Patrolling will be resumed only when both sides reach an agreement in diplomatic and military talks that would be held subsequently. The implementation of this agreement has started yesterday in the North and South Bank of the Pangong Lake. It will substantially restore the situation to that existing prior to commencement of the standoff last year.
I want to assure this House that in these talks we have not conceded anything. The House should also know that there are still some outstanding issues with regard to deployment and patrolling at some other points along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh. These will be the focus of further discussions with the Chinese side. We have agreed that both sides should achieve complete disengagement at the earliest and abide fully by the bilateral agreements and protocols. By now, the Chinese side is also fully aware of our resolve. It is therefore our expectation that the Chinese side will work with us in full sincerity to resolve these remaining issues.
For a brief refresher on the geography of the “Fingers” on Pangong Tso, please see this graphic from India Today:
Evidence of the disengagement taking place soon began to roll in. The first step involved the withdrawal of some tanks and armoured troops on the South bank being withdrawn on both sides, followed up by the withdrawal of troops on the north bank.
By February 19, reports indicated that the disengagement at Pangong Tso had been complete. Images of Chinese and Indian troops withdrawing were released publicly, and some satellite images from Maxar Technologies comparing the area at Finger 6 on January 30, 2021 and February 16, 2021, provides additional evidence of the disengagement:
Although the disengagement has reportedly taken place, we have to keep two things in mind. Firstly, trust levels between India and China are extremely low, particularly after an earlier attempt at disengagement resulted in a clash in the Galwan Valley, leading to the death of 20 Indian soldiers (China, this week, has acknowledged for the first time that at least four of its soldiers died in the clash as well). As a result, both sides will maintain a close eye on the area through technologies such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and installed cameras to ensure that “the entire area was visible from multiple heights.” Secondly, Pangong Tso represents only one area where Indian and Chinese troops continue to face off. The situation in other areas in Eastern Ladakh, such as Gogra-Hot Springs, Demchok, and Depsang remain to be addressed. The Economist has a helpful map outlining where these areas are along the LAC:
As per the Defense Minister’s speech, a meeting of the Senior Commanders was held within 48 hours of the disengagement in the Pangong Lake area. On February 20th, the 10th round of China-India Corps Commander Level Meeting was held in Chushul. The meeting reportedly lasted for nearly 15 hours. However, the press release did not provide details if an agreement was reached (although this does not mean no agreement was reached, as prior press releases from such Commander Level meetings also did not specify details that an agreement on Pangong Tso was forthcoming).
The aftermath of the Pangong Tso disengagement also saw additional details come out about the tactical details of the stand-off. Northern Army Commander Lt. Gen. YK Joshi gave an interview to Shreya Dhoundial of CNN-News18, publicly discussing for the first time how India moved to capture the heights on the Southern bank of Pangong Tso on August 29/30th, and sharing just how close India and China came to war on August 31st. (The video of the interview is below, and a transcript is available here).
China, too, has engaged in this kind of public engagement. In addition to sharing the first details that at least four Chinese soldiers died in the July 15 clash in Galwan Valley, China has also released an (edited) video of the clash itself.
With the news of the disengagement in Pangong Tso and unveiling of information about the clash, it may be tempting for folks on both sides to say that the crisis is over, that one side emerged victorious, or to speculate about where India-China ties will go from here. There are also concerns about whether India may have given up too much in the first round of negotiations (such as disengaging from the strategic heights in the South bank of Pangong Tso), leaving little to trade with the Chinese to force a return to status quo ante in the strategically crucial area of Depsang.
However, as I noted at the start, we are still in the very early stages, and there is very little we know about how the disengagement process will proceed at the other friction points that need to be resolved. As such, it is definitely far too early to say where this is headed, and what it means for the future trajectory of the India-China relationship.
What I can promise you is that as this process continues, this newsletter will keep analyzing what we do know, while being clear about what we don’t.
Further Reading/Watching
I am, by no means, an expert on everything related to to this issue, and cannot cover everything in one week’s newsletter edition. Therefore, I wanted to share a long list of links to articles, videos, and podcasts released in the past two weeks that I highly recommend to all readers interested in this issue.
To read:
Sushant Singh, Senior Fellow at the Center for Policy Research: Looking ahead after the Ladakh walk back
Dr. Anit Mukherjee, Associate Professor, S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University: Use the Ladakh crisis as an opportunity
Nitin Pai, Director of the Takshashila Institution: Unless China changes thinking, any border agreement is a perishable good
Sujan Chinoy, Director-General of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses: A disengagement deal better than expected
Prof. Srikanth Kondapalli, professor in Chinese studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University: Time for India to draw red lines for China
Prof. Rajesh Rajagopalan, Professor in International Politics at Jawaharlal Nehru University: India and US must know the new Cold War is a different beast – China isn’t USSR
Vijay Gokhale, former foreign secretary of India: China’s vision of hegemony: the view from India
Dr. Arzan Tarapore, South Asia research scholar at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University: India should prioritise a denial
strategy in the Indian Ocean
To watch:
Jyoti Malhotra, Strategic Affairs Editor at ThePrint, in conversation with Nitin Gokhale, editor-in-chief of StratNews Global and Ananth Krishnan, China Correspondent at The Hindu: ‘China wanted to humiliate Modi, but was forced to withdraw as mil stalemate was going nowhere’
Jyoti Malhotra, Strategic Affairs Editor at ThePrint, in conversation with two former commanders of the Northern Command, Lt General HS Panag and Lt General DS Hooda: Reading India-China disengagement in Ladakh
Karan Thapar of The Wire in conversation with Amb. Shivshankar Menon, former National Security Advisor of India: ‘Early Days, Mustn't Draw Big Conclusions on Chinese Withdrawal’
To listen to:
Suhasini Haidar, National Editor and Diplomatic Affairs Editor at The Hindu in conversation with Amb. Shyam Saran, former foreign secretary of India
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COVID-19 Vaccination Update (February 8-21)
On January 16, India launched it campaign to vaccinate its population against the virus that causes COVID-19. Since this, I’ve provided a weekly snapshot of India’s vaccination numbers each week in this newsletter.
Below is the data from Weeks 5 and 6 of India’s vaccination campaign. (You can see updates from Week 1 (January 16-17) here, Week 2 (January 18-24) here, Week 3 (January 25-31) here, and Week 4 (February 1-7) here.)
Over the past two weeks, beginning on Monday, February 8 and ending on Sunday, February 21, the total number of vaccinated people grew from 5,803,617 people to 11,085,173.
The breakdown of how many doses of vaccines (first and second doses) were administered each is included below. The data below also links directly to the original data released by the government, which includes a further state-by-state breakdown.
February 8: 223,298 first doses
February 9: 269,202 first doses
February 10: 215,133 first doses
February 11: 413,752 first doses
February 12: 261,309 first doses
February 13 (first day second doses were offered): 84,807 doses (77,139 first doses and 7,668 second doses)
February 14: 296,221 doses (272,583 first doses and 23,628 second doses)
February 15: 231,476 doses (157,919 first doses and 98,118 second doses)
February 16: 134,691 doses (78,643 first doses and 56,048 second doses)
February 17: 187,527 doses (121,788 first doses and 65,739 second doses)
February 18: 317,190 doses (221,425 first doses and 95,765 second doses)
February 19: 261,935 doses (115,892 first doses and 146,043 second doses)
February 20: 186,081 doses (96,340 first doses and 89,741 second doses)
February 21: 432,931 doses (2,56,488 first doses and 1,76,443 second doses)
News Roundup
The Union Cabinet approved the signing of the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation and Partnership Agreement (CECPA) between India and Mauritius, which will be the first trade Agreement to be signed by India with a country in Africa. The agreement covers preferential market access for 310 export items for India and 615 export items for Mauritius.
External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar met with his counterparts from Australia, Japan, and the United States for the 3rd foreign minister-level meeting of the “Quad” countries. In addition to discussing the need for a free and open Indo-Pacific, support for a rules-based order, and cooperation on responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, the four ministers also discussed the ongoing developments in Myanmar.
The Parliament passed the Major Ports Act, 2020, which aims to overhaul the governance system of India’s major ports in line with global standards, and create greater efficiency in the operation of India’s ports.
India and the European Union held the 11th edition of their “Macroeconomic Dialogue,” focused on advancing collaboration within both entities within the G20’s finance track, exchanging information on each others’ medium-term fiscal strategy and reform priorities, as well as steps taken to revive the economy following the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Government of India and the Ministry of Science and Technology announced it was liberalizing its guidelines over the use of geospatial data, allowing “all geospatial data produced using public funds, except classified geospatial data collected by security/law enforcement agencies” to be made accessible “for scientific, economic and developmental purposes to all Indian Entities and without any restrictions on their use.”
The Indian Navy completed its largest war game - the biennial Theatre Level Operational Readiness Exercise (TROPEX 21) - which involved all three Commands of the Indian Navy, the Tri-Services Command at Port Blair, and elements of Indian Army, Indian Air Force and Coast Guard.
Minister of Commerce Piyush Goyal announced in an address at the U.S.-India Business Council that he would “engage with the new USTR to put together a fresh package. I think the old one is now off the table.”
The Ministry of Labor has reportedly tasked NITI Aayog with drafting a first ever “Migrant Policy” for India. The draft policy reportedly includes provisions to enable migrant workers to vote in their location of employment, the creation of a special unit on migration within the Ministry of Labor, and create “Inter-state migration management bodies: to cover the nation’s key migration corridors (such as Uttar Pradesh and Mumbai, Bihar and Delhi, or Odisha and Gujarat).
There was quite a bit of confusion this week about India’s participation in a naval exercise with the navies of Iran and Russia, as well as the possible attendance of the Chinese navy.
On February 16, Admiral Gholamreza Tahani of Iran announced that the the Indian Navy had requested to join the drills that were scheduled to be held between the Russian and Iranian navies. Separately, Hossein Khanzadi, commander of the Iranian navy, had said the Chinese navy would participate in the drill after the Chinese New Year.
However, by February 18, Indian news sources reported that the Indian Navy had denied participating in the exercise, saying “Reports that Indian Navy is participating in the drill are incorrect. We never joined the exercise.”
External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar announced that India had gifted 200,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccines to the United Nations to be used to inoculate UN peacekeepers.
Five to Read
From cogent analysis to potentially big news that you should keep an eye on, here are a few commentaries and other pieces of writing that I found particularly enlightening:
Dr. Milan Vaishnav, Dr. Devesh Kapur, and Dr. Sumitra Badrinathan release Part II of their study on how India-Americans think about social, political, and foreign policy issues: “These high-octane gatherings, however, naturally lead to a series of questions: How do Indians in America regard India, and how do they remain connected to developments there? What are their attitudes toward Indian politics and changes underway in their ancestral homeland? And what role, if any, do they envision for the United States in engaging with India? Despite the growing media attention showered on the Indian diaspora and the Indian government’s enhanced outreach, many of these questions remain unanswered. This study seeks to remedy this gap. The analysis is based on a nationally representative online survey of 1,200 Indian American adult residents.”
Yamini Aiyar, president and chief executive at Center for Policy Research, argues: “India is a “Union of states”. The Constitution, in its Seventh Schedule, lays down separate and concurrent responsibilities shared by the Union government and states. Politics, however, has blurred these boundaries. Successive central governments have unleashed their centralising impulse to gain political control by directing expenditures through central schemes on state subjects… India needs mechanisms for institutionalised deliberation with states. The Fifteenth Finance Commission has opened the debate. The real question is whether a government that actively seeks to centralise can credibly respond and navigate the growing tensions in Centre-state fiscal relations.”
Aditya Kalra, a Reuters journalist in India focusing on companies and regulation, reports: “Amazon favored big sellers on its India platform – and used them to maneuver around rules meant to protect the country's small retailers from getting crushed by e-commerce giants, internal documents show. As one presentation urged: “Test the Boundaries of what is allowed by law.””
Roshan Kishore, the Data & Political Economy Editor for Hindustan Times, writes: “India imposed one of the world’s most stringent lockdowns -- it went on for 68 days -- starting on March 25 to curb the spread of Covid-19 infections. It was this lockdown which triggered a record contraction of 24% in India’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of fiscal 2020-21. The economic shock led to projections of a sharp fall in GDP in 2020-21. With the removal of lockdown restrictions, and more importantly, no second wave of infections, the economy is expected to do better than had been expected... Many, including the government, claim that the economy is on course to a V-shaped recovery, and the lockdown has not left any significant scars on the economy. Others, including some reputed economists, do not agree with this assessment. They argue that a large section of the economy has suffered badly because of the disruption caused by the lockdown and this will continue to generate headwinds for growth. Which of these sides is closer to the truth?”
[BOOK] Meenakshi Ahamed, author of A Matter Of Trust : India–Us Relations From Truman To Trump: A Matter of Trust is an illuminating account of the India-US relationship that has far-reaching implications for the changing global political landscape. Meenakshi Ahamed expertly reveals the personal prejudices and insecurities of the leaders, and the political imperatives, that over the years, have so often cast a shadow over their relationship. Available in India and the United States.