Unpacking Fears of a Third Wave of COVID Infections in India
With the festive season approaching, will India see a third wave of infections?
Hi there, I’m Aman Thakker. Welcome to Indialogue, a newsletter analyzing the biggest policy developments in India. The aim of this newsletter is to provide you with quality analysis every week on what’s going on in India. Here’s what you can expect in this week’s newsletter:
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Unpacking Fears of a Third Wave of COVID Infections in India
Last week, the director of the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) Randeep Guleria, gave a stern warning regarding COVID-19 safety procotols to fellow Indians. He said: “During the festive season, we have to remain alert and vigilant. If we remain careful for the next 6-8 weeks, then we will be able to see a decline in the overall number of COVID-19 cases.”
So where do COVID cases in India stand now? What factors might contribute to, or mitigate, the possible emergence of a third wave? And what risks should India prepare for?
The current caseload in India currently stands at around 25,000 cases per day, which comes out to around 16-17 cases per million people in India. This is a dramatic decline from the nearly 400,000 cases a day (or 280 cases per million people) that India was registering during the peak of its second wave of COVID-19 infections earlier this year.
A major reason for this decline in cases is because COVID-19 has become largely endemic in India. A recent serological survey, which assess the prevalence of a disease in a population, found that nearly two-thirds of India adults (67.6%) had anti-bodies against COVID-19. The same survey also found that nearly half of Indian children aged 6-17 had anti-bodies against COVID-19.
The second major reason is that India has taken several strides forward in vaccinating its population against COVID-19. India has inoculated more than 70% of India’s population aged 18 year or above with at least one dose of the COVID-19 infection. It has also steadily increase the pace of vaccines administered per day, reaching an average 7.9 million doses administered per day in September, which is up from 5.9 million doses administered per day in August.
Both of these factors - the high presence of anti-bodies among adults in India and the protection from even the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine - will help mitigate the risks of a third wave that is as widespread and devastating as the second wave earlier this year.
However, as India braces for a spurt of economic activity and movement due to the festive season, there remain three risks that India will need to account for as it prepares to avoid a severe third wave.
First, despite high rates of vaccine coverage in the first dose, the share of India’s population that is fully vaccinated (with both doses of the COVID-19 vaccine) remains low. So far, only ~26% of India’s adult population has been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. With breakthrough cases of COVID-19 (even with those fully vaccinated) becoming more common with the emergence of the Delta variant, India will need to move quicker to vaccinate more of its adult population with both doses in order to maximize the protection against the virus for its citizens.
Second, as is the case in many other countries, the risk for India continues to be rising incidences of infections among unvaccinated children. Several states and union territories - from Mizoram to Maharashtra to Delhi - have reported a gradual increase in infections among children, particularly among children under the age of 10. As we’re seeing in parts of the United States, the lack of vaccines for children means that a third wave could disproportionately affect children. Some states, such as Maharashtra, are already increasing capacity in their pediatric wards in hospitals, which could see an increase in admissions if cases continue to rise.
Finally, the gray rhino in the room continues to be the emergence of new variants. As Indians gear up for the festive season, it will be imperative for all Indians to adhere to safe best practices, including masking and social distancing, even if they are vaccinated. Without these precautions, the spread of the virus will continue, giving it additional opportunities to mutute further, which could result in even more virulent strains or, in a worst-case scenario, lead to the emergence of a “vaccine escape” or “immunity escape” variant that can attack vaccinated or otherwise immune people.
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A ConversationSix about the Quad in-person Leaders’ Summit
Last week, my very good friend, Aakriti Vasudeva, Research Analyst with the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center, and I discussed the recent Quad in-person’s leaders’ summit. Specifically, we talked about our takeaways from the summit, common misperceptions and misunderstandings regarding the Quad, and where the Quad should go from here.
If you are interested you can listen to the complete six-minute conversation on the ConversationSix website here.
News Roundup
Prime Minister Modi launched the Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission on 27 September. Under this mission, every citizen will now get a digital health ID and their health record will be digitally protected.
The Chief of Army Staff of the Indian Army, Gen. Manoj Naravane, told news agency ANI that India and China are likely to hold the 13th round of Corps Commander-level talks this week during his two-day visit to Leh. The talks will be aimed at resolving the standoff in eastern Ladakh, especially in Hot Springs and other areas.
The Defense Acquisition Council, chaired by Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, approved proposals for the acqusition of 25 ALH Mark III helicopters from Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, as well as Terminally Guided Munition (TGM) and HEPF/RHE Rocket Ammunition. The total approved proposals amounted to approximately Rs.13,165 crore ($1.77 billion).
The Ministry of Defense placed a supply order for 118 Main Battle Tanks Arjun Mk-1A from the Heavy Vehicles Factory in Avadi, Chennai, which will be used for the Indian Army. The order is worth a total of Rs. 7,523 crore ($1.02 billion).
At the conclusion of the 17th India-Australia Joint Ministerial Commission, India’s Minister of Commerce and Industry, Piyush Goyal, and Australia’s Minister for Trade, Tourism and Investment, Dan Tehan, announced that both countries formally launched the resumption of negotiations on the India-Australia Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA). They also announced that they will aim to reach an interim agreement by December 2021 to liberalise and deepen bilateral trade in goods and services, and to conclude the negotiations on a full CECA by the end of 2022.
The Ministry of Coal announced it was launching a second attempt to auction 11 coal mines (six fully explored, and five partially explored). The mines were first offered up for auction on March 25, 2021, but failed to receive more than single bids. Under India’s auction guidelines, any auction must recieve a minimum of two technical bids for financial bids to be considered valid. However, India’s recent attempts to auction nearly 67 mines resulted in 48 mines recieving no bids, and only eight mines received more than one bid.
India and the United States announced they had agreed in-principle to establish the Indo-US Industrial Security Joint Working Group. This group will meet periodically to align the policies and procedures to facilitate collaboration collaborate on cutting edge defence technologies across the defense industries of both countries.
India’s Minister for Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) Narayan Rane virtually launched the India Export Initiative and IndiaXports 2021 Portal. The portal will provide MSMEs with information about the export potential for all the 456 tariff lines along with the potential markets as well as trends in exports, export procedures and more.
Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla is on an official visit from Sri Lanka from October 2-5, 2021. During the visit, the Foreign Secretary will review India’s bilateral ties with Sri Lanka, the progress of ongoing bilateral projects, as well as ongoing cooperation to tackle Covid related disruptions.
Five to Read
From cogent analysis to potentially big news that you should keep an eye on, here are a few commentaries and other pieces of writing that I found particularly enlightening:
Yamini Aiyar, president and chief executive, Centre for Policy Research (CPR), and Mekhala Krishnamurthy, senior fellow and director of the State Capacity Initiative, CPR: Bringing the states back in - Hindustan Times
Dr Jagannath Panda, Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses: What Kishida as Japan PM means for India and China - The Sunday Guardian
Darshana M Baruah, associate fellow and head of the Indian Ocean initiative at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: From the periphery to the centre, India’s maritime moment has arrived - Hindustan Times
Uzair Sattar, Junior Fellow with the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center: The Case For Resuming India-Pakistan Cricket - South Asian Voices
[REPORT] Yamini Aiyar, Sunil Khilnani, Prakash Menon, Shivshankar Menon, Nitin Pai, Srinath Raghavan, Ajit Ranade, and Shyam Saran - India’s Path to Power: Strategy in a World Adrift - The Takshashila Institution and the Centre for Policy Research
Thanks for reading this latest edition of Indialogue. Please let me know if you have any thoughts or feedback by emailing me at aman@amanthakker.com.