Team Biden on India
President-Elect Biden's foreign policy and national security teams are likely to be announced soon. How might they engage India while in office?
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Team Biden and Their Approach to India
President-Elect Joe Biden is all set to announce key roles in his incoming administration on foreign policy and national security. Multiple outlets have reported that the President-Elect has chosen Antony Blinken, former Deputy Secretary of State and Deputy National Security Advisor in the Obama administration, as his nominee for Secretary of State. Bloomberg has gone further, saying that Jake Sullivan, former National Security Advisor to Biden when he was Vice President, will be tapped to serve as National Security Advisor to President Biden this time. Finally, it seems the choice for Secretary of Defense will be Michèle Flournoy, former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy under President Barack Obama, making her the first woman to be Secretary of Defense. Of course, these announcements are still pending official confirmation, which is likely to come from the Biden-Harris transition team on Tuesday.
With such a team, how might President Biden and his administration approach India? Luckily, we have some insight into their thinking.
President-Elect Biden, given his long history on foreign policy as Chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and Vice President, has made numerous statements that give us insight into this thinking on U.S.-India relations. Here’s then-Vice President Biden speaking at length about President Obama’s and his hopes and ambitions U.S.-India ties during an event at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in 2015:
More recently, his campaign released an “Agenda for the Indian American Community” in the lead-up to the election, saying that “a Biden Administration will place a high priority on continuing to strengthen the U.S.-India relationship.” The campaign document goes onto say:
No common global challenge can be solved without India and the United States working as responsible partners. Together, we will continue strengthening India’s defense and capabilities as a counter-terrorism partner, improving health systems and pandemic response, and deepening cooperation in areas such as higher education, space exploration, and humanitarian relief.
As the world’s oldest and largest democracies, the United States and India are bound together by our shared democratic values: fair and free elections, equality under the law, and the freedom of expression and religion. These core principles have endured throughout each of our nations’ histories and will continue to be the source of our strength in the future.
President-elect Biden doubled down on this rhetoric in an op-ed for the Indian-American outlet India West:
That’s why if elected President, I will continue what I have long called for: The U.S. and India will stand together against terrorism in all its forms and work together to promote a region of peace and stability where neither China nor any other country threatens its neighbors. We’ll open markets and grow the middle class in both the United States and India, and confront other international challenges together, like climate change, global health, transnational terrorism and nuclear proliferation.
This rhetoric has been matched by his expected nominees. Antony Blinken, speaking at the Hudson Institute in July 2020, said, “From Vice President Biden’s perspective, strengthening and deepening the relationship with India is going to be a very high priority.” Blinken spoke at length on U.S.-India ties during a virtual campaign event held on August 15, 2020 to commemorate India’s Independence Day. Blinken, who spoke alongside Ambassador Rich Verma, former U.S. Ambassador to India, and Nisha Biswal, former Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, said:
“In a Biden administration, we would be an advocate for India to play a leading role in international institutions and that includes helping India get a seat on a United Nations Security Council… We have a common challenge which has to deal with an increasingly assertive China across the board, including its aggression toward India at the Line of Actual Control but also using its economic might to coerce others and reap unfair advantage. Ignoring international rules to advance its own interests asserting unfounded maritime and territorial claims that threaten freedom of navigation in some of the most important seas in the world.”
You can listen to the full remarks, starting at around 24:45, here:
However, as some watchers of the U.S.-India relationship have pointed out, President Biden and his team will likely emphasize issues that President Trump and his administration have chosen to ignore, particularly the Indian government’s heavy-handed approach to Kashmir, as well as legislation such as the Citizenship Amendment Act. However, Blinken’s past comments provide some insight into how he would engage India constructively on these issues as Secretary of State. Here’s him again from the July 2020 event at the Hudson Institute:
We obviously have challenges now and real concerns, for example, about some of the actions that the [Indian] government has taken particularly in cracking down on freedom of movement and freedom of speech in Kashmir, some of the laws on citizenship but you’re always better engaging with a partner and a vitally important one like India, when you can speak frankly and directly about areas where you have differences even as you’re working to build greater cooperation and strengthen the relationship going forward. That would be the approach and again, I think we’ve seen evidence that it works.
However, the larger strategic underpinnings that are driving the U.S.-India relationship forward will likely continue on under a Biden administration. The expected nominee for Secretary of Defense, Michèle Flournoy, directly pointed to Chinese aggression in Eastern Ladakh as a “clarion call” for the United States to partner with like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific, including and especially India, to cooperate in order to protect their common interests. Moreover, Blinken has also stated explicitly how Biden and his team would depart from President Trump and his team’s strategy in important ways when it comes to India, saying they would prefer a real partnership with India to Trump’s preference for “photo-ops” and a “transactional approach.”
As far back as 2006, Biden told the now-defunct India Abroad that “My dream is that in 2020, the two closest nations in the world will be India and the United States.” Having won his election to be President of the United States in 2020, Biden, with his team of Antony Blinken, Michèle Flournoy, and Jake Sullivan, will have his chance to bring that vision to reality.
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A Busy Week for India in The Indo-Pacific
This week saw India undertake a number of activities in the Indo-Pacific:
The Indian Navy, alongside the U.S. Navy, the Royal Australian Navy, and the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force, completed the second phase of the MALABAR exercises from November 17 - 20, 2020. The second phase of the exercises, held in the Western Indian Ocean, saw participation from the Vikramaditya Carrier Battle Group of the Indian Navy and Nimitz Carrier Strike Group of the US Navy.
Indian Navy Marine Commandos (MARCOS) conducted Combat Free Fall (CFF) exercises at all the airfields of Andaman and Nicobar Islands on 17th and 18th November 2020.
The Indian Navy and the Royal Thai Navy conducted the 30th edition of their India-Thailand Coordinated Patrol (Indo-Thai CORPAT) from November 18 – 20 November 2020. The Indian Naval Ship Karmuk and the His Majesty’s Thailand Ship Kraburi, as well as Dornier Maritime Patrol Aircraft from both the navies, participated in the CORPAT.
The Indian Navy, the Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN) and Royal Thai Navy conducted their 2nd ever Singapore, India, and Thailand Trilateral Maritime Exercise (SITMEX) from November 21 - 22, 2020 in the Andaman Sea. The aim of the exercise is to improve interoperability between the navies, strengthen mutual confidence, and develop common understanding and procedures towards enhancing the overall maritime security in the region.
The Indian Navy and the Republic of Singapore Navy will conduct the 27th edition of India - Singapore Bilateral Maritime Exercise SIMBEX-20 from 23 to 25 November 2020 in Andaman Sea.
News Roundup
Prime Minister Modi spoke on the phone with President-elect of the United States Joseph Biden on November 17. They outlined priorities for the future of the “India-U.S. Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership” as being “containing the Covid-19 pandemic, promoting access to affordable vaccines, tackling climate change, and cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Region.”
Prime Minister Modi, participated virtually in the 15th G20 Summit convened by Saudi Arabia on 21-22 November, 2020. Following the summit, the Indian government announced that it would postpone hosting the G20 Summit in India by one year from 2022 to 2023. In 2018, India had worked with Italy to obtain hosting rights for the 2022 G20 conference to coincide with India’s 75th year of Independence.
The Reserve Bank of India’s Internal Working Group to Review Extant Ownership Guidelines and Corporate Structure for Indian Private Sector Banks published a report outlining recommendations for the regulation of private banks in India. Recommendations include increasing the cap on promotors’ stake in banks from 15% to 26%, allowing large and well-run non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) to convert into banks, and subject all NBFCs to the same prudential norms as applicable to banks.
Prime Minister Modi held a virtual bilateral summit with his counterpart from Luxembourg, Prime Minister Xavier Bettel. The two leaders discussed how to strengthen India-Luxembourg relationship in the post-COVID world, especially in the areas of financial technology, green financing, space applications, digital innovations and start-ups. The countries also announced the signing of an agreement between Invest India and Luxinnovation to support and develop mutual business cooperation between Indian and Luxembourg companies, as well as a cooperation agreement between the Luxembourg Stock Exchange with State Bank of India and the India International Stock Exchange.
The Ministry of Information and Broadcasting issued a public notice to all digital media companies streaming news and current affairs, mandating that they comply with the Government of India’s decision to place a cap of only 26% foreign direct investment in such companies. Any companies with more than 26% foreign investment must submit all shareholding information, as well as plan to come into compliance with the 26% cap by October 2021, to the Ministry by December 16, 2020.
Navy Secretary Kenneth Braithwaite, who is slated to travel to India soon, raised the idea of creating a new numbered fleet closer to the border of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, potentially based out of Singapore, that would be the new First Fleet of the U.S. Navy.
The Competition Commission of India approved the acquisition of Future Enterprises Limited by Reliance Retail Ventures Limited, underscoring Reliance’s deepening forays into India’s retail industry.
India and Uzbekistan held the 14th round of their Foreign Office Consultations on 20 November 2020. The two sides discussed political, economic, and defence cooperation, and reviewed the timely implementation of projects in Uzbekistan being covered under the Indian Line of Credit.
New reporting by Vishnu Som at NDTV based on high resolution satellite imagery finds that “in addition to setting up a village more than two kilometres within Bhutanese territory on the eastern periphery of the contested Doklam plateau, China has built a road in the same area that stretches approximately 9 kilometres inside Bhutanese territory.” He argues that this new road could provide Chinese forces “an alternate route to the Zompelri ridge, which the Indian Army had prevented Chinese forces from accessing in 2017 when the two sides faced off on the Doklam plateau.”
Sonia Gandhi, the President of the Indian National Congress, announced the creation of three committees within the party on three important policy issues: Economic Affairs, Foreign Affairs, and National Security. Former Prime Minister of India Manmohan Singh will be a member of all three committees, and the full details and membership of the committees is available here.
Three to Read
From cogent analysis to potentially big news that you should keep an eye on, here are a few commentaries and other pieces of writing that I found particularly enlightening:
Sushant Singh, Senior Fellow with the Centre for Policy Research, writes: “The ghost of Pulwama and Balakot has been exorcised nearly 20 months after the twin events happened (2019). In Pakistan, former Speaker and Opposition MP, Sardar Ayaz Sadiq, alleged in the Pakistan National Assembly last month that the PTI government, fearing an imminent missile strike from India, had capitulated and released the captured Indian fighter pilot, Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman. The allegation was denied by the Pakistan government and the all-powerful military, and even Mr. Sadiq partially backtracked within a day, but it brought the spotlight back on an incident where the two nuclear-armed neighbours were threatening a military escalation.”
Dr. Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Distinguished Fellow & Head of the Nuclear and Space Policy Initiative, at Observer Research Foundation, argues: “India’s aim in engaging with BRICS may be an effort to demonstrate that it retains strategic autonomy and that it engages with all major powers irrespective of these incongruences. In this respect, it may serve a limited domestic political agenda. But as contradictions keep piling up, questions about the future of BRICS as anything other than an ineffective talkshop are bound to grow.”
Pratap Bhanu Mehta, Contributing Editor at The Indian Express and former vice-chancellor of Ashoka University, writes: “In political science literature there is a familiar term — democratic barbarism. Democratic barbarism is often sustained by a judicial barbarism... The Indian Supreme Court was never perfect. It has had its dark periods before. But the signs are that it is slipping into judicial barbarism in the senses described above. This phenomenon is not just a matter of individual judges or individual cases. It is now a systematic phenomenon with deep institutional roots. It is also part of a global trend, of a piece with developments in Turkey, Poland and Hungary, where the judiciary aids this kind of democratic barbarism. To be sure, not all judges succumb to this; there are still pockets of resistance in the system. There will also be instances of grand pronouncement of principles on behalf of liberty, an occasional relief granted to a deserving plaintiff, to preserve a thin veneer of respectability for the institution, while its daily practice continues to abet the rot.”
Thanks for reading this latest edition of Indialogue. Please let me know if you have any thoughts or feedback by emailing me at aman@amanthakker.com.