Takeaways from the U.S.-India 2+2
Days before the U.S. Presidential Election, the United States and India hold a 2+2 Dialogue
Hi there, I’m Aman Thakker. Welcome to Indialogue, a newsletter analyzing the biggest policy developments in India. The aim of this newsletter is to provide you with quality analysis every week on what’s going on in India.
Apologies for the late notice, but today’s edition of Indialogue will be a shorter version of the newsletter I usually send out. We’ll return to the regular format next week. Apologies again!
As always, please do not hesitate to send any suggestions, critiques, or ideas to aman@amanthakker.com.
Takeaways from the Third U.S.-India 2+2 Dialogue
The United States and India held their third ever 2+2 Dialogue last week in New Delhi on October 27, 2020.
The 2+2 Dialogue is a meeting of the Indian Ministers of External Affairs and Defense with their counterparts from the United States, the Secretaries of State and Defense.
The 2+2, which was started under the administration of President Trump, replaced the U.S.-India Strategic and Commercial Dialogue, which was held under the administration of President Obama, and involved the Indian Ministers of External Affairs and Commerce, as well as the U.S. Secretaries of State and Commerce.
The dialogue was held days before the U.S. Presidential Election, scheduled to be held on November 3rd, 2020.
Among the many takeaways from the meeting, the two countries (pulled from this joint statement):
Signed the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-spatial Cooperation, which would, according to defense analyst Ajai Shukla, allow “India’s military to access a range of US topographical, nautical, and aeronautical data;”
Agreed to conclude new Memoranda of Understanding between India’s Ministry of Health and Family Welfare and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, as well as the Indian Council of Medical Research and the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases;
Welcomed the positioning of a Liaison Officer from the U.S. Navy at India’s Information Fusion Center - Indian Ocean Region and the positioning of an Indian Liaison Officer at Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) in Bahrain;
Looked forward to a meeting of the Military Cooperation Group and the inaugural Industrial Security Annex (ISA) Summit, both scheduled to be held later this year;
Welcomed the establishment of a permanent presence of the U.S. International Development Finance Cooperation in India in 2020;
Participated in the Second Indo-Pacific Business Forum, held on October 28-29, 2020; and
Committed to hosting the next 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue in 2021 in the United States.
Shortly after the 2+2 Dialogue, Manu Pubby of EconomicTimes reported that India had activated one of foundational or enabling agreements - the Logistical and Exchange Memorandum of Agreement signed between the two countries in 2016 which provides both countries access to each other’s military and civil facilities for repairs, supplies and refuelling.
Under the LEMOA, the Indian Army made an urgent request for 11,000 sets of extended cold weather clothing system (ECWCS), which came from the U.S. Army’s holdings.
Another event which will take place shortly after the 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue: the Indian Navy, along with the U.S. Navy, Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force, and the Royal Australian Navy will carry out the annual MALABAR Exercise. Usually a trilateral exercise involving India, the United States, and Japan, India invited Australia to participate in the exercise for the first time since 2007, bringing much focus to the four countries and their “Quad” grouping, which has been opposed by China.
This year’s MALABAR exercises will be held in two phases. The first phase will be held from November 3rd to November 6th in the Bay of Bengal, while the second phase will be held from November 17th to the 20th in the Arabian Sea.
A Webinar Recommendation on the U.S.-India 2+2
If you would like a deeper dive into the broader history of U.S.-India relations, expert analysis on the issues discussed during the 2+2, and the future trajectory of U.S.-India relations, I highly recommend this webinar convened by The Asia Group with Amb. Kurt Campbell, Chairman and CEO of The Asia Group and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, and Dr. Ashley Tellis, the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
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A Discussion on U.S.-India Ties and the Indian American Vote in the 2020 Election (in Gujarati!)
Two weeks ago, this newsletter took a deep dive into the role of Indian-Americans in the 2020 Presidential Election, and what the election might mean for the future trajectory of U.S.-India ties (you can check out that edition of the newsletter here).
Last week, Ketan Trivedi and Hiren Mehta, both editors at the Gujarati-language publication, Chitralekha, and hosts of a new weekly online show on current affairs, invited to speak on those very topics… in Gujarati no less!
Although it was certainly a daunting task, I thought it was a unique opportunity to speak about these issues to a new audience and in their own language. If you speak Gujarati and would like to listen to our conversation, please click below. Our conversation begins at around the 10:30 mark:
News Roundup
The Ministry of Home Affairs has extended re-opening guidelines for India’s ongoing process of “Unlocking” following the nationwide lockdown instituted due to the spread of COVID-19. Under the newest regulations, international air travel of passengers, use of swimming pools, opening of cinemas and theaters up to 50% capacity, as well as allowing social, academic, sports, religious, and political events indoors for up to 50% indoor capacity (with a maximum attendance of 200 persons) will now be allowed.
The Cabinet has approved a Memorandum of Understanding between India and Japan regarding bilateral cooperation on Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs). Under the MoU, the two countries will aim to deepen their cooperation on technologies such as 5G networks, telecommunication security, submarine cables, ICT capacity building, Artificial Intelligence, blockchain, among others.
External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar participated in the 2nd meeting of the India-Central Asia Dialogue, alongside the foreign ministers of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and the First Deputy Foreign Minister of the Kyrgyzstan. The Acting Foreign Minister of Afghanistan was asked to attend the meeting as a “special invitee.”
The Fifteenth Finance Commission, tasked with providing recommendations for devolution of taxes and other fiscal matters for the financial years from 2021-2022 to 2025-2026, has concluded its deliberations, and will submit its report to the President of India on 9th November 2020.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman led the Indian delegation in the 10th Round of Ministerial UK-India Economic and Financial Dialogue, meeting virtually with her counterpart, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak. In addition to the two ministers, representatives from Ministry of Finance, Reserve Bank of India and Securities and Exchange Board of India participated from the Indian side, while representatives from Her Majesty’s Treasury, Bank of England and Financial Conduct Authority participated from the UK’s side. The two sides released a joint statement which focused on the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and ways the two countries can work together to create a sustainable recovery, on issues of trade and investment, financial market development, as well as cooperation on financial technology (FinTech).
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh addressed the Army Commanders’ Conference, a biannual meeting of the Indian Army’s apex leadership which was underway from October 26-29, 2020. The conference focused on deliberating on issues of security, organizational restructuring, logistics, administration and human resource management within the Indian Army.
The Shipping Ministry has released a draft Coastal Shipping Bill, 2020 for comment from stakeholders and the general public. The bill aims to expand the definition of “coastal shipping,” ease requirement for trading licenses for Indian flag vessels engaged in coastal trade, integrate coastal maritime transport with inland waterways, and craft a National Coastal and Inland Shipping Strategic Plan. A full draft of the bill is available here, and is open for comments until November 6, 2020.
The Cabinet has approved a Memorandum of Understanding between India and Cambodia regarding bilateral cooperation on health and medicine. Under the MoU, which will be in force for five years, the two countries will aim to deepen their cooperation on areas such as maternal and child health, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, communicable and non-communicable disease control, pharmaceuticals, epidemiology, medical education, and others.
Three to Read
From cogent analysis to potentially big news that you should keep an eye on, here are a few commentaries and other pieces of writing that I found particularly enlightening:
Dr. Tanvi Madan, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, argues: “A significant amount of the commentary in India about the upcoming US presidential election’s impact has focused on what Donald Trump and Joe Biden have said or not said about Kashmir. However, that misses a crucial point: Broader foreign policy decisions will have more significant implications for India. Particularly consequential will be how a second Trump administration or a Biden administration perceive and approach China and, relatedly, the question of America’s role in the world. The outcome will depend on not just who wins in November, but also the choices that the next American president makes on key personnel and policies.”
Soma Basu, an investigative journalist and a research scholar based in New Delhi, India, writes: “Far from passing its COVID-19 peak, India is inching toward one of the worst phases of the pandemic. The smog’s return in the winter, a festival season with no crowd management and upcoming political campaigns marked by large election rallies all pose a litmus test for India. The coming months will determine if the country finally moves toward normalcy, or sees another spike that pushes it past the U.S. as the nation with the most cases of COVID-19.”
Subhash Chandra Garg, former Finance Secretary of India, writes in a detailed and wide-ranging blog post about his time in government, and his year following voluntary retirement: “A new vision, a new set of economic policy and bold reforms were needed to put India on higher growth path of 8-10% annual growth. It was time to work on India’s Economic Policy 3.0. I did a lot of conceptual work during March-May 2019 for such a policy framework. Part of that work was is in the 100 policy reform agenda which I made public later on 7th November. The situation, after elections 2019, unfortunately took a turn for worse. The government did talk about making India a $5 trillion economy by 2024-25 after the elections and winning a great majority. But the reform agenda and the investment plan for attaining the goal of $10 trillion economy articulated in the Interim Budget 2019-20 however, got side-tracked and was virtually forgotten.”
Thanks for reading this latest edition of Indialogue. Please let me know if you have any thoughts or feedback by emailing me at aman@amanthakker.com.