Hi there, I’m Aman Thakker. Welcome to Indialogue, a newsletter analyzing the biggest policy developments in India. The aim of this newsletter is to provide you with quality analysis every week on what’s going on in India.
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Where Is India’s Much-Needed Fiscal Package?
Last week’s newsletter opened with a detailed discussion about the Indian government imminent announcement of a second round of fiscal stimulus to address the economic downturn from COVID-19. The aim of such a package, government sources said, would be to provide assistance to micro, small, and medium enterprises.
However, It’s a week later, and no announcement has been made.
The delay in announcing this package is going to directly affect people’s lives and livelihoods. A study by the All India Manufacturers Organisation found that about 71% of MSMEs failed to pay wages, fully or partially, for March, as a result of the spread of COVID-19. Another survey found that, for the average small business in India, “the largest item constituting financial burden according to the respondents was labour costs (34 per cent).” This means that if faced with distress and forced to make choices to survive, “the first casualty would be a cut in labour.”
This means that for every day that the government punts the decision to announce a fiscal package to provide relief to the sector, another business gets closer to suspending wage payments or laying off workers. It means those workers get closer to economic insecurity during a pandemic, where they cannot find another job quickly. It means India’s most vulnerable continue to go without support or help beyond the initial fiscal package announced last month, which most economists say does not do enough.
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Clarification Bonanza
If the story with India’s fiscal package highlights how the government may be responding too slowly, the Ministry of Home Affairs is showcasing what happens when the government rushes to announce new steps. On April 24, the Ministry announced new relaxations to lockdown restrictions. Their order said “all shops registered under Shops & Establishment Act of respective States/ UTs, including shops in residential complexes, neighborhood & standalone shop” would be allowed to open. These shops would be allowed to keep only 50% strength of workers when open, and must ensure everyone in the store wears masks and adheres to social distancing norms.
However, the day later, the Ministry issued a clarification, saying different rules applied to rural and urban areas. They specified that is “in rural areas, ALL shops, except those in shopping malls allowed to open. In urban areas, all standalone/neighbourhood shops & shops in residential complexes are allowed to open. Shops in markets/market complexes & shopping malls are not allowed to open.”
However, the confusion did not stop there. Yet another clarification was issued.
Rather than some detailed analysis, I’ll leave you with this clip for the British satirical show, Yes Minister, for your enjoyment.
Attacks and Arrests: A Tough Week for Press Freedom in India
Last weekend, the Jammu and Kashmir Police placed Masrat Zahra, a photojournalist “who reports mostly about women and children in conflict” under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA). What did she do? She uploaded photographs that the police claimed “glorified anti-national activities,” and that her photographs could “provoke the public to disturb law and order.”
The UAPA, most recently amended in 2019, gives the government extraordinary, arguable draconian, powers to name individuals and organizations as “terrorists” As lawyer Nitika Khaitan notes, the law gives the government broad investigatory powers, and includes provisions subjecting those accused under the law “to longer periods of detention than in regular criminal trials, harsher restrictions on bail and even clauses that reverse the burden of proof if certain conditions are met.”
Masrat Zahra was not the only one to be charged under the UAPA this week.
In separate developments, on April 23, Arnab Goswami, co-founder and anchor at Republic TV, claimed he was attacked by two men as he returned home from work with his wife. The attack came after he launched into a vicious, sensationalist tirade against Sonia Gandhi, the acting President of the Indian National Congress. He claims that the attackers were members of the party, sent as retribution for his statements on air. The police has arrested and charged the accused.
There is no shortage of commentary of these incidents. However, there are a few things that, even if have been said already, bear repeating.
Firstly, the use of the UAPA against journalists and students is wrong. Doing so aims to do nothing more intimidate those writing and reporting facts that make those in power uncomfortable. It does not prevent terrorism or other unlawful activities. It also calls into question the broader implications of the law, and whether it strikes the right balance between the rights of citizens and the powers of the state. That’s a debate that can, and should, take place. What is not up for debate, however, is that the state should not use its powers to muzzle a free press.
Secondly, it is the collective responsibility of citizens to stand up against threats to free speech, even if we may not disagree with the content of that speech. I’m not going to ignore the fact that these examples cut cross political affiliations, and that readers of this newsletter may feel greater sympathy for arguments for freedom of expression towards one set of journalists over another. However, that cannot and should not come in the way of our collective defense of anyone’s right to speech, including (and especially) if we vehemently disagree with them.
Recommendation Corner: Your Resource for All Things Related to Press Freedom
If you’re interested in press freedom around the world, Scott Nover, my best friend and a reporter at Adweek, has a fantastic newsletter called Pressing that just covers this topic every week. Subscribe here!
In Other News
A few weeks ago, I shared a story about how Facebook was interested in acquiring a stake in the Indian telecommunications company, Jio. The two companies announced the conclusion of the deal on April 22, with Facebook investing $5.7 billion for 9.99% stake in Jio.
The Punjab State government announced the creation of a 20-member Group of Experts to formulate the state’s post-COVID-19 economic revival and recovery. It will be headed by Dr. Montek Singh Alhuwalia, former Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission of India, and includes members such as Prof. Devesh Kapur, professor at Johns Hopkins University, Ms. Yamini Aiyar, President of the Centre for Policy Research, and Mr. Ajay Banga, President and CEO of Mastercard.
Larsen & Toubro announced it was selected by the Indian Army to “establish a first-of-its-kind, state-of-the-art Unified Network Management System” and manage the military’s ultra-modern communications network, called the Armed Forces Network (AFN). This network, according to defense expert Ajai Shukla, will enable the army, navy and air force’s bases across the country to exchange date securely.
In a recent interview, Indian Ambassador to China, Vikram Misri, said that discussions on the outstanding trade issues between India and China, including on differences on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, will resume after the global situation on COVID-19 normalizes.
The Government undertook a major bureaucratic re-shuffle, moving key bureaucrats from within the Prime Minister’s Office to key ministries, likely suggesting where the Prime Minister wants trusted lieutenants as the government continues to manage the COVID-19 crisis. Major shifts include:
Tarun Bajaj, formerly Additional Secretary in the Prime Minister’s Office, will now serve as Secretary, Economic Affairs, at the Ministry of Finance
A.K. Sharma, formerly Additional Secretary in the Prime Minister’s Office, will now serve as Secretary in the Ministry of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises
Preeti Sudan, Secretary in the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, will see her term extended by three months. She was due to retire from the civil services this month.
Five to Read…
This week had a lot of incredible writing, so this section is a little longer than usual. From cogent analysis to potentially big news that you should keep an eye on, here are a few commentaries and other pieces of writing that I found particularly enlightening.
Yasmeen Serhan, staff writer at The Atlantic, writes: “Beijing has been mounting a diplomatic push to help the world contain the pandemic and, in the process, reposition itself not as the authoritarian power that was slow to sound the alarm on the impending health crisis, but as the global leader that stepped up when others didn’t. In some places, it appears to be working. Not everywhere, though. In India, which this month marked 70 years of diplomatic relations with Beijing, anti-China sentiment has soared.”
Dr. Irfan Nooruddin, Director of the South Asia Center at the Atlantic Council and professor in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, argues: “The novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, that causes the disease COVID-19, has proven the ultimate stress test for governance systems globally. And governments worldwide are failing, showing up for all to see how poorly prepared they were for this examination…. Such is the virality and lethality of this pathogen that success will be measured in hundreds of lives lost, compared to the tens of thousands of fatalities experienced elsewhere. Yet, the common challenges faced by all governments to fight COVID-19 must not mask the considerable variation in their performance which holds lessons from which we must learn.”
Kai Schultz and Sameer Yasir of The New York Times report on the impact of President Trump’s Executive Order to suspend immigration on the Indian diaspora, noting: “Further immigration restrictions could have particularly acute consequences for India, which sends thousands of highly skilled workers to the United States every year and counts a four million strong diaspora in the country, representing one of the largest contingents of immigrants to the United States… For Indian citizens, building a more permanent base in the country was never easy. Most of the 800,000 immigrants currently waiting for a green card are Indian citizens. Because of quotas that limit the number of workers from each country, Indians can expect to wait up to 50 years for a green card since their representation among immigrants is so high in the United States.”
Jishnu Das, Neelanjan Sircar and Partha Mukhopadhyay, all affiliated with the Centre for Policy Research, put forth a blueprint for a better testing strategy in India, writing: “This suggested… strategy tests more asymptomatic persons and uses structured randomisation, to enable active learning by governments. It minimises the risk of transmission from super-spreaders, maximises the chance of detecting hidden infections, and shapes strategy in real-time for future testing, to optimise scarce medical and testing resources. Importantly, it can also calibrate containment strategies. States should consider using these principles as they embark on their testing journeys, which may, sadly, last longer than expected.”
Professor Kate Sullivan de Estrada, Associate Professor in the International Relations of South Asia (and my supervisor!) at the University of Oxford, writes about India’s “Security and Growth for All in the Region” (SAGAR) doctrine for the Indian Ocean, arguing: “SAGAR seeks to differentiate India’s leadership from the modus operandi of other regionally active major powers and to reassure littoral states as India’s maritime influence grows. As External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar signalled at the fourth Indian Ocean Conference in September last year, India’s SAGAR vision is intended to be “consultative, democratic and equitable”. India’s recent admission as observer to the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC) will put this vision to the test.”
… And Two To Watch
Dr. C. Raja Mohan, Director, Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, and Ashok Malik, Policy Advisor at the Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India held a webinar on India’s approach to international institutions in the post-COVID-19 world.
The Asia Society, Switzerland, hosted Dr. Tanvi Madan, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and author of Fateful Triangle: How China Shaped US-India Relations during the Cold War, and Dr. Samir Saran, President of the Observer Research Foundation for a webinar on India-China relations.
Thanks for reading this latest edition of Indialogue. Please let me know if you have any thoughts or feedback by emailing me at aman@amanthakker.com.