Reflections from Independence Day
Thinking about the "ends, ways, and means" of Indian policymaking
Hi there, I’m Aman Thakker. Welcome to Indialogue, a newsletter analyzing the biggest policy developments in India. The aim of this newsletter is to provide you with quality analysis every week on what’s going on in India.
A quick note: I will send out only a very short version of the newsletter (with only the news roundup and reading recommendations) for the next two editions of Indialogue, scheduled for August 24 and August 31, as I will be finishing and submitting my Master’s thesis. We’ll return to the regular format beginning September 7. Thank you in advance for your understanding, and apologies in advance!
As always, please do not hesitate to send any suggestions, critiques, or ideas to aman@amanthakker.com.
Reflections on India at 74
This past Saturday, India celebrated its 74th Independence Day, and we all certainly found ourselves celebrating the occasion in abnormal times. The invisible enemy of the pandemic continues to loom large. The typical activities of Independence Day - community events, flag hoisting ceremonies, parades - all involve mass gatherings, and so were largely all non-starters in such an environment.
But some things remained the same. The Prime Minister still addressed the nation from the ramparts of the Red Fort, outlining the achievements of the past year and articulating goals for the next. Many spoke, tweeted, and wrote about the past, present, and future of India. And many looked back and engaged with the writings and ideas of the men and women who fought for the very independence we were celebrating - from re-listening to Prime Minister Nehru’s “Tryst with Destiny” speech, or reading the written works of Dr. B.R. Ambedkar.
In short, the past, present, and future of India was top of mind for many Indians.
It was top of mind for me as well. This Independence Day, I spent a significant portion of the day not just reflecting on India’s past, present, and future, but trying to write about it as well in much greater detail than I have ever had the opportunity to in the past. As I mentioned at the top of this edition of the newsletter, I’ve been working on my Master’s thesis for the past month. The focus of my thesis has been the concept of India’s “grand strategy,” or how Indian policymakers coordinate and direct Indian resources to advance Indian national interest. Boiled down to its core components, grand strategy is a delicate dance, at the highest levels of government, of a nation’s ends, ways, means:
“Ends” refers to the end goal. The question here is what are key goals for India, and Indian policymaking in particular?
“Ways” refers to actions needed to get to the end goal. What steps or actions do Indian policymakers need to take to achieve the goals we have set?
“Means” refers to resources. What do we need to take these steps? And can we achieve our goals with the resources we have?
This mantra of “ends, ways, and means” has dominated my thinking as I’ve gotten into the weeds of my research and writing. For example, the Prime Minister’s Independence Day address was filled with clues about how he thinks about India’s grand strategy, and how he conceives of India’s ends, ways, and means.
The Prime Minister has made a big push to emphasize the need for “AtmaNirbhar Bharat” or “self-reliant India.” In his August 15 address, the Prime Minister said:
My dear countrymen,
In the midst of the Corona pandemic, 130 crore Indians pledged themselves to become self-reliant. Today self-reliance is etched in the mind of every Indian. We are also witnessing the realization of that dream of Self-Reliant India (“AatmaNirbharBharat”). “Self-reliant India” is not just a word, it has become a mantra for 130 crore countrymen.
When I talk of self-reliance, all of us who are now above the age group of 25-30 years surely recall how we were goaded by our parents and elders to become self-reliant as we attained an age of 20 - 21. Every family expects its children of 20-21 years to be self-reliant. As we are just one step away from the 75th Anniversary of Independence, it is essential for a country like India to stand own its own, and to become self reliant.
Here, the Prime Minister has clearly articulated the goal, or the “end” for India looking to the future. India should be self-reliant, and based upon his metaphor of 20-21 year-olds, reach a level of maturity and independence that India need not depend on anyone else.
He goes on to say:
How long shall we continue to export raw material to the world? How long will the process of exporting raw material and importing finished goods continue? So, we will have to be self-reliant. We will have to resort to value addition of our capabilities as per the world’s requirements. It is our responsibility… When we talk about becoming self-reliant, then we do not merely refer to decreasing the import demands. When we talk of self-reliance, it is about our skills, our human resources. When we start sourcing things from abroad, then our capabilities start depleting and consequently, it gets completely destroyed over generations. We need to preserve it and enhance that caliber of ours. We need to accentuate our skills, our creativity and with that we need to touch new heights. We need to strengthen skill development for a self-reliant India, for improving our competency.
Taking his articulation of his government’s goals and objective further, the Prime Minister outlines a number of “ways” or steps/actions that India needs to take in order to become “self-reliant.” His suggests that India should stop exporting raw materials in exchange for finished goods, and instead should protect the skills and caliber of Indians. To quote another catchphrase the Prime Minister has employed in his speeches since the pandemic, the way forward in creating a “self-reliant India” is to be “vocal for local” goods, products, and services.
The Prime Minister also interweaves, through his speech, his conception of the “means” India has to achieve this: its population, its natural resources, its “human resources,” its “youth power,” and its existing self-reliance in agriculture.
Therefore, the Prime Minister has articulated a very specific blueprint for what the major thrust of India’s policymaking should be. To achieve the creation of a “self-reliant India”, his government will now need to implement trade policies that would promote domestic goods at home and abroad, and limit the import of finished products. It would employ a domestic economic strategy that supported the development of local goods, products, and services. And it would craft a diplomatic strategy that would preserve India’s self-reliance, and manage any diplomatic fallout that its trade and economic policies have on other countries.
However, grand strategy is not simply about naming ends, ways, and means. Grand strategy is a political project, and it involves convincing Indians that this particular constellation of ends, ways, and means preserves Indian national interest to the highest degree. The Prime Minister has certainly articulated his vision, but it is incumbent upon us to know engage critically with that vision, and what it means for India’s past, present and future.
We need to ask:
On “ends”: Is self-reliance the desired goal of Indian policymaking? If so, is it “self-reliance” as defined by the Prime Minister or something else? If not, what else is our desired goal?
On “ways”: Are the methods outlined by the Prime Minister - import substitution, protectionism, and autarky - the best methods to achieve India’s national interest, whether defined as the Prime Minister’s conception of “self-reliant India” or otherwise?
On “means”: Do we have the resources to achieve our stated desired goal, whether “self-reliance” or something else? How will those resources be affected as we pursue our goals? Do we have vulnerabilities that will be exposed as we pursue our prescribed “end” through our prescribed “means?”
These are difficult, but important questions. However, we should - and arguably, we need to - have a debate on not just the desired “ends” or goals of where we would like Indian policymaking to take us, but also the “ways” or methods we hope to go about achieving our goals, and the “means” or resources at our disposal.
As I finish out this section, I find myself looking forward to thinking some more about “ends, ways, and means” as I finish my thesis. I hope, and look forward, to sharing my thoughts with you when the newsletter is back to its regular format on September 7.
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News Roundup
Prime Minister Modi and his counterpart from Nepal, Prime Minister K.P. Oli, spoke on the phone on August 15. The conversation marked the first direct contact between the two leaders since relations between the two countries soured over India’s construction of a road which Nepal claims is its sovereign territory. The call came ahead of a scheduled meeting on August 17 between India’s ambassador to Nepal, Vinay Mohan Kwatra, and Nepal’s foreign secretary, Shankaar Das Bairagi, to discuss and review Indian-funded projects in Nepal.
Newley Purnell and Jeff Horowitz of the Wall Street Journal report that Facebook officials have stopped short of punishing politicians of the Bharatiya Janata Party who have violated the platform’s rule on hate speech, such as promoting or participating in violence, due to fears that such punishments could damage Facebook’s business prospects in India.
India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar announced that the Governemnt of India would provide an aid package of $500 million - $100 million as a grant, and $400 million as a line of credit - to support Greater Male Connectivity Project. The project aims to connect the capital Male to three nearby islands.
Vijaita Singh of The Hindu reports that the Naga peace talks between the Government of India and the National Socialist Council of Nagaland - Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) have stalled. In particular, the NSCN-IM is reportedly upset with the Indian government’s interlocutor R.N. Ravi, the current Governor of Nagaland and former Deputy National Security Advisor of India, and have asked for his removal. You can read more about the specific details of the dispute here.
Prime Minister Modi launched a new submarine Optical Fibre Cable that connected Andaman & Nicobar Islands to the mainland. The cable would bring high-speed speed broadband internet to the islands, with speeds comparable to mainland India.
Indian state-owned oil companies have reportedly barred China-flagged and Chinese-owned vessels “from bidding on tenders for chartering tankers to import crude into India, or export products such as diesel out of the country.” The move marks the latest front in worsening relations between India and China following the ongoing tensions along the Line of Actual Control.
The Presidential campaign of former Vice President Joe Biden hosted an online event to celebrate Indian Independence Day. After remarks from Mr. Biden and his Vice Presidential pick, Sen. Kamala Harris, several campaign surrogates held a panel discussion on U.S.-India ties.
Five to Read
From cogent analysis to potentially big news that you should keep an eye on, here are a few commentaries and other pieces of writing that I found particularly enlightening:
M.K. Narayan, India’s former National Security Advisor, writes: “The latest round of talks, August 2, between the Military Commanders of India and China, did not produce any breakthrough, and the situation along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Ladakh sector thus remains essentially unchanged. All that is evident is that China has indicated a willingness to resile from occupying territory beyond its 1960 Claim line. A return to the status quo ante prior to May this year, is nowhere in sight.”
Jyotsna Mehra, Pacific Forum Young Leader and a Consulting Editor at the New Delhi-based publication, The Kootneeti, argues: “Since its inception, the Quad has been a subject of intense scrutiny by policymakers and analysts who have debated both its intentions and capabilities. As the Quad reappeared in Manila in 2017, those doubts also returned. By analysing the debates in Australia, India, Japan and the US on the Quad, it is clear that with Xi’s ascendency in China, the threat posed by that country to the [rules-based order] has become more pronounced, and has brought the Quad countries closer.”
Dr. Arzan Tarapore, non-resident fellow at NBR and an adjunct defense analyst at the RAND Corporation, writes: “Ground forces dominate Indian military strategy. Since its independence, India has fought five wars along its unsettled northern land borders, and its most vexing security threats today—as illustrated by the ongoing Chinese incursions in the northern region of Ladakh—still loom across those same borders. The Indian Army commands a clear and growing majority of military budget allocations and an even larger share of military personnel. But how does India use its ground forces, and how well do they serve Indian security interests? This paper argues that the Indian Army—and by extension, Indian defense policy more generally—is dominated by an orthodox offensive doctrine.”
Aanchal Magazine, a journalist at The Indian Express, explains the brewing dispute between India’s states and the center over GST compensation: “Finance Ministry officials are learnt to have reported the Centre’s inability to compensate states in the near future, which was followed by the Attorney General of India’s legal opinion that the Centre does not have an obligation to pay for a revenue shortfall. The AG is learnt to have suggested that the GST Council can recommend to the Centre that it allow the states “to borrow on the strength of the future receipts from the compensation fund” and that the Centre will have to take the “final decision in the matter”. States such as Punjab, Kerala, Bihar are not in favour of being asked to borrow to bridge the revenue gap, that will be then repaid from the compensation cess fund.”
Amb. Shivshankar Menon, Distinguished Fellow at Brookings India and India’s former National Security Advisor, argues: “India will continue to seek security in a strengthened military partnership with the United States. Yet it would be a shame if that continued to be the extent of the relationship. Ideally, their cooperation would go far beyond military questions. On so many transnational issues—cybersecurity, freedom of navigation in the Indian Ocean, counterterrorism, and climate change, to name a few—New Delhi and Washington are natural partners linked by common interests and values. With imagination and vision on both sides, one hopes, India and the United States will someday attain the relationship they deserve.”
Thanks for reading this latest edition of Indialogue. Please let me know if you have any thoughts or feedback by emailing me at aman@amanthakker.com.