PM Modi Meets with J&K Political Leaders
The meeting comes nearly two years after the Aug. 5, 2019 decision to revoke Kashmir's constitutional autonomy under Articles 370 and 35A.
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Prime Minister Modi Meets with Political Leaders from Jammu and Kashmir
On June 24, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with political leaders from the erstwhile state and now Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. The meeting comes nearly two years after Prime Minister Modi’s government’s announcement of August 5, 2019, to abrogate Articles 370 and 35A of the Constitution of India, which granted significant autonomy to the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir, as well as bifurcate the former state into two Union Territories: Jammu & Kashmir, and Ladakh.
The August 5 decision was soon followed by a massive and harsh security lockdown, with the central government sending thousands of armed personnel to the area, enforcing a curfew, blocking all major forms of communications, and detaining all major political party leaders. Now, nearly two years later, many of those same leaders were meeting with the Prime Minister, in a move that has signalled that Delhi’s policy may have changed in the last two years.
So, what did the center hope to achieve with its policies vis-à-vis Kashmir over the last 22 month, what does the June 24 meeting signify about Delhi’s position on Kashmir, and what comes next.
Suhasini Haidar, the Diplomatic Affairs Editor at The Hindu, explained the central government’s goals when it comes to its Kashmir policies, in a recent piece. She writes:
Mr. Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah had spoken of three specific objectives in the move to amend Article 370 on August 5, 2019, apart from ending terrorism and violence in J&K: flooding the region with development initiatives and investment from other parts of the country; reclaiming those parts of the territory now occupied by Pakistan and China (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, or PoK, and Aksai Chin), and ending the rule of political “dynasties” in J&K — that they claimed had held the progress of the State hostage — in favour of a “Naya Kashmir” polity.
Let’s take a look at these goals individually. Flooding the region with development initiatives and investment was always going to be hard, given the history of violence in the region. But Articles 370 or 35A were never really obstacles, as I discussed in a previous edition of Indialogue:
Data actually shows that the former state of Jammu and Kashmir ranked 3rd in life expectancy, 10th in infant mortality, 7th best in doctors per capita, and ranked ahead of Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh in its Human Development Index Score. Moreover, Shahid Iqbal Choudhary, the District Magistrate and Development Commissioner of Srinagar, wrote in an op-ed that:
“It is utterly wrong and unjust to blame Article 370 for every minor or major shortfall faced by Jammu and Kashmir state in the path of development… prominent names of industry have their presence in Jammu which include Chenab textiles, Dabur India, Godrej, Coca-Cola, Berger Paints, Euro Bond, UK Paints”
Investments from these companies have totaled nearly $700 million (Rs 5000 crore) in the erstwhile state.
Rather than building upon this investment to bring more jobs and development to the region, what the revocation of Kashmir’s special autonomous status seems to have done is make it harder for the state to develop. The center, through its stringent lockdown on communications and internet access - a ban of 4G mobile internet remains in place - has created a sense of fear and uncertainty, a far cry from a “desirable” business climate. Tourism, a source of major revenue for the erstwhile state, has collapsed since the decision was announced a year ago.
The argument that the revocation of Articles 370 and 35A could somehow bolster India’s chances to claw back territory it claims that is held by Pakistan or China is also questionable. But beyond the logical gaps in this line of argumentation, the geopolitical developments of the last 22 months have also underscored how this was not a realistic goal. The stand-off with China, which some experts like Dr. Ashley Tellis have argued may be partly explained by India’s aggressive rhetoric and administrative changes in Kashmir, as well as the possiblility of a two-front threat with Pakistan have led India to engage in negotiations with Pakistan to maintain a ceasefire along the Line of Control while it tackles the threat from China.
Finally, the attempts to make a “new political culture” in Kashmir seems to have ended with the fact that leaders - described as “holding the progress of the state hostage” and a “gang” - are the very ones with whom Delhi is hosting discusssions.
So what comes next? For now, the Centre is offering a compromise: the state must undertake a delimitation exercise, following which assembly elections can be held. Once those steps are taken, the center will agree to move forward with restoring J&K’s status as a state at “an appropriate time.”
Here’s what that means. Delimitation is an exercise to redraw the boundaries of districts within the polity of J&K, which will represent constitutiences in the J&K assembly. Per NDTV, delimitation is overseen by a Commission that is “headed by a retired Supreme Court judge and includes the Chief Election Commissioner or Election Commissioner and state election commissioners. Five MPs from Jammu and Kashmir are associate members, but their recommendations are not binding on the Commission.”
The center has argued that such an exercise is necessary following the reorgnization and bifurcation of the state, and is the impediment to elections in the new Union Territory. Elections have been pending since 2018, when an alliance between the BJP and the J&K People’s Democratic Party fell through. However, attempts at delimitation have been boycotted so far by the J&K political parties, and a court case is pending before the Supreme Court challenging both, the August 5 decisions by the center and the delimitation exercise.
However, this outreach at a compromise comes against the wider backdrop of continental South Asia’s changing geopolitics. With the ongoing border crisis with China and the pending U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, India is increasingly recognzing the need to ensure an environment conducive to preserving its security interests to its north and west. Just with the outreach to Pakistan, the central government’s reengaagement with the J&K political leaders is an attempt to manage the flux that the region has experienced and will experience in the future.
What remains to be seen, however, is whether the outreach and the offer by Prime Minister Modi and his government will have any takers. Will J&K political leaders see this offer of delimitation, then assembly elections, and only then statehood without autonomy, as desirable? Will the center proceed with delimitation and assembly elections if the J&K political parties refuse to go along with this plan? Will the J&K political parties even participate in the assembly elections? Or will the center make more concessions to J&K political leaders, given the larger security considerations it faces in continental South Asia?
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News Roundup
India and China held the 22nd Meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination (WMCC) on India-China Border Affairs, coming more than three months after the last WMCC meeting between the two countries (which was last held on March 12, 2021). Per the Ministry of External Affairs, “Both sides agreed on the need to find an early resolution to the remaining issues along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh” and that “The two sides agreed to hold the next (12th) round of the Senior Commanders meeting at an early date to achieve the objective of complete disengagement from all the friction points along the LAC in the Western Sector.”
Suhasini Haidar of The Hindu reported last week that “Indian officials made a “quiet visit” to Doha in order to speak to the Taliban’s political leadership based there, said a senior Qatari official, in what appears to be the first official confirmation of recent reports that New Delhi has engaged the Taliban directly.” The reports have emerged after External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar stopped over in Doha to meet with the Qatari leadership twice in the last month.
The Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food & Public Distribution has proposed new amendments to the Consumer Protection (E-commerce) Rules, 2020 in order to ban “back to back” or “flash” sales, where one seller selling on an e-commerce platform does not carry any inventory or order fulfilment capability but merely places an order with another seller, owned or controlled by platform itself. Other proposed amendments include mandating the appointment of a Chief Compliance Officer and a mandatory filter to “identify goods based on country of origin and suggest alternatives to ensure fair opportunity to domestic goods.” The text of the proposed amendments is available here, and is open to comments by the public until July 6, 2021.
National Security Advisor of India, Ajit Doval, attended a meeting of the top security officals of the member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), held in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, from June 23-24. At the meeting, the NSA proposed an action plan for the SCO member states against Pakistan-based terror groups Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM).
The Indian Navy and the Indian Air Force participated in a two-day integrated bilateral exercise with a US Navy Carrier Strike Group in the Indian Ocean Region. The exercise specifically focused on “High tempo operations” such as “advanced air defence exercises, cross deck helicopter operations and anti-submarine exercises.”
The Ministry of Power announced on June 21 that it would extend the waiver on inter-state transmission charges for any electricity generated from solar and wind sources, in order to promote electricity generation from renewable sources. The waiver will now expire on June 30, 2025, as compared to the same date in 2023.
Chief of Defense Staff Gen. Bipin Rawat chaired a high-level meeting with the Vice Chiefs of the three services and senior officials of the defence ministry to iron out differences on setting up of theatre commands. The meeting comes as reports suggest that at least four theatre commands - the air defence command, maritime theatre command, integrated eastern theatre command and integrated western theatre command - could be announced by the Prime Minister soon, possibly in his Independence Day remarks on August 15, and be stood up by the end of the year.
Defense Minister Rajnath Singh reached Leh on June 27 for a three-day visit to Ladakh, where he will “inaugurate infrastructure projects constructed by Border Roads Organisation (BRO) and interact with troops deployed in the region.” The visit comes as Indian and Chinese troops continue to face off at multiple points along the Line of Actual Control in Eastern Ladakh for more than one year.
Five to Read
From cogent analysis to potentially big news that you should keep an eye on, here are a few commentaries and other pieces of writing that I found particularly enlightening:
Adm. (Retd.) Arun Prakash, former Chief of the Naval Staff of the Indian Navy, argues: “Nations which were lagging behind India a few decades ago have surged ahead because of their vision and dynamism in the vital maritime arena. Today, India’s major ports are overloaded and inefficient, our shipbuilding industry is moribund, the merchant fleet is inadequate and growing at a snail’s pace, seabed exploitation has yet to take off, the fishing industry is backward, and human resources are lacking everywhere. All eyes are focused seawards, and naval power is going to play a decisive role in the India-China rivalry. But navies remain hollow without the backing of a strong maritime sector. If “atmanirbharta” has relevance anywhere, it is here.”
Sonam Chandwani, managing partner at KS Legal & Associates, writes: “India’s approach of trying to reduce the domestic cryptocurrency sphere to a state-backed CBDC under RBI does not come as a surprise, but whether it’s viable is another matter. The Achilles’ heel of this approach is the delusion that it is possible to ban cryptocurrencies, while the global experience so far suggests that a blanket ban would be ineffective and it may be wiser to regulate them to mitigate systemic risks. Going forward, it is imperative that a dialogue be held among all stakeholders on their concerns.”
Dr. Rakesh Mohan, President of the Centre for Social and Economic Progress and former Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, writes: “The current government structure is simply not designed to take India to the next stage of development. The third generation of economic reforms must therefore focus on improving the government’s own competence, both administrative and technical, at all levels.”
M.R. Shamshad, advocate-on-record at the Supreme Court of India, argues: “The core issue is the non-appointment of judges. Many high courts have 40 to 50 per cent vacancies at times. According to a government statement in the Lok Sabha, there were 5,135 vacancies in district and subordinate courts as on June 30, 2018. Other issues that lead to clogging of the system include the refusal to increase the number of sanctioned posts, lack of infrastructure in the district courts, absence of training of judges, stalling of police reforms etc. All these factors generate cases and burden the dockets of the courts at all levels. Special courts are created for specific disputes giving the impression of expedited hearing and disposal. But judges for these courts have to be provided by the high courts from the existing common pool of judges. All these issues need effective resolution, preferably by joint effort of the Supreme Court and the High Courts.”
Dharmakirti Joshi and Pankhuri Tandon, chief economist and economist, respectively, at CRISIL Limited, write: “Until April this year, only wholesale inflation (WPI) was on the rise, led by fuel and commodity prices. But in May, even retail inflation (CPI) picked up, printing at 6.3 per cent. Notably, CPI inflation crossed the RBI’s upper limit of 6 per cent after five months. And the run-up was not just year-on-year (which can be somewhat discounted due to the data disruptions in April-May last year) but also on a sequential month-on-month basis. So what gives? And what does this change in inflation trajectory mean for us?”
Thanks for reading this latest edition of Indialogue. Please let me know if you have any thoughts or feedback by emailing me at aman@amanthakker.com.