India Extends Lockdown, But With an Asterisk
The lockdown will now end on May 18, but some restrictions could be relaxed in specific areas.
Hi there, I’m Aman Thakker. Welcome to Indialogue, a newsletter analyzing the biggest policy developments in India. The aim of this newsletter is to provide you with quality analysis every week on what’s going on in India.
This week’s newsletter is a little shorter than usual, but will return to its normal coverage next week.
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Lockdown Extended for a Third Time, Slated to End May 18
India’s lockdown was slated to end today, May 4. However, last week, India’s Ministry of Home Affairs announced that India’s national lockdown would continue, but with some changes. The government had announced in mid-April that it would begin to classify every district India according to three colors - green, orange, and red. Those districts that have a total of zero cases, or seen no confirmed cases for the last 21 days, will be classified as “green.” Beyond that, a number of factors including the total number of active cases, the doubling rate, and the extent of testing will determine whether a district is classified as “orange” or “red.” Within orange and red districts, the government will also identify containment zones, where the government will enforce maximum precaution.
A full list of every district’s classification, as well as a higher-level picture of number of districts per color in each state, is available here. However, this data is from April 30, 2020, so it may soon be out of date, if it is not already.
The government has spelled out, in an almost unhelpful amount of detail, what activities are allowed in each classification. You can read the whole note here, but a snapshot is included below. Be warned, it’s a lot:
Beyond this new approach to gradually easing restrictions in districts with low number of cases of COVID-19, India also finally allowed special buses and, later, trains to run to allow migrant workers to go back to their homes if they so wish. However, migrant workers were still charged full fares for these journeys, which is absolutely inappropriate, given that they were not working and forced to remain far from home while the government dithered on a solution to their plight for a over a month. The government has now said that Indian Railways will pick up 85% of the tab, but that still doesn’t excuse the botched response after such a long delay.
However, the broader concern is about the lack of cohesive thinking on the part of the government as it goes into the next stage of the lockdown. Government sources have said, publicly and privately, that the easing of restriction in “green” districts is to restart economic activity. However, there are a few problems with that.
First, India’s main economic hubs - which include not just the major cities of Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, and Kolkata, but also other Tier I and Tier II cities - are all pretty much classified as “red.” This means that not only are India’s major production areas still facing lockdowns, but major consumption areas too will not see economic activity from these measures. A report from Axis Bank further finds that green zone districts contribute roughly 19% of GDP, and receive a total of 6% of credit from India’s financial system, suggesting how little economic activity we should expect to return from the government’s move.
However, beyond that, if the government’s aim is to see economic activity return soon in orange and red districts too, then what is driving the government decision to allow migrant workers to return home? I’m not for one second suggesting that the government should address their needs - it should have, and much earlier than it did - but if the government is focused on economic activity, how can it do so when a significant portion of its labor is now being sent back home?
In short, I don’t expect any major economic activity despite this easing of restrictions in certain districts, and the government’s strategy continues to throw up more questions than it answers.
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India Resources Galore For Your Lockdown Reading Needs
It is day 46 since I have been at home in lockdown, and I restarted this newsletter as a way to channel my reactions to everything going into a productive outlet. I’m sure many of you are in the same position, and if you, like me, would like to dive into the world of reading, writing, and thinking more about India, here’s some resources that people have collated for folks like us.
Krzysztof Iwanek, Head of the Asia Resarch Center at the War Studies University in Poland has compiled a great guide to books on India that you can download or read online from academic presses that have been made available for free during the pandemic. Check out books from sources including The University of California Press, Michigan University Press, Springer, Cambridge University Press and others.
The Monkey Cage, an independent blog hosted by The Washington Post dedicated to connect political science research to ongoing political conversations, has just released its “India Topic Guide.” The guide includes nearly 50 articles on India published at The Monkey Cage on topics ranging from India’s foreign policy, governance and development in India, and Indian elections.
Manoj Saxena, a doctoral student at King’s College London, has compiled a thread on Twitter on primary sources on Indian foreign policy that are available online. These include tips on how to access the Ministry of External Affairs’ Annual Records from 1948 onwards, digitized archival records on foreign and defense policy from the National Archives of India, the Indian treaties database, and other fascinating resources.
If you’re looking extremely timely resources, PRS Legislative Research, a non-profit based in New Delhi, has compiled all state and central government notification issued during the COVID-19 crisis in India. This includes around 3900 orders and notifications - a treasure trove for current and future researchers.
In Other Policy News
India signed a loan agreement for $1.5 billion with the Asian Development Bank. The funds will be used for India’s “immediate priorities” in its COVID-19 response, including “disease containment and prevention, as well as social protection for the poor and economically vulnerable sections of the society”
India’s health ministry directs state government to ensure healthcare facilities, including hospitals, do not insist on patients showing evidence of a negative test-result for COVID-19 before providing healthcare services.
India’s Minister for External Affairs, S. Jaishankar, participated in a videoconference with fellow foreign ministers from the BRICS grouping. The five countries the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, and how BRICS countries were responding.
The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF), an independent commission established by the U.S. government, has recommended in its 2020 report that the State Department designate India as a “Country of Particular Concern,” the worst category for religious freedom. India has responded to the report’s findings by arguing its they are “biased and tendentious.” India went on to remark that it considered the USCIRF an “Organization of Particular Concern and will treat it accordingly.”
The Ministry of External Affairs announced a number of new diplomatic appointments in key posts and missions around the world. Major appointments include:
T.S. Tirumurti, currently Secretary for Economic Relations at the MEA will serve as India’s Permanent Representative and Ambassador to the United Nations in New York. He will take over for Syed Akbaruddin, who retired on April 30 from the foreign service.
Gaitiri Kumar, currently India’s Ambassador to Belgium, Luxembourg, and the European Union, will take over as India’s High Commission to the United Kingdom. She will take over for Ruchi Ghanshyam, who is also retiring from the foreign service.
Santhosh Jha, currently India’s Ambassador to Uzbekistan, will take up the post of India’s Ambassador to Belgium, Luxembourg, and the EU after Amb. Kumar leaves her post.
Indramani Pandey, currently Additional Secretary for Disarmament and International Security Affairs at the MEA will serve as India’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations in Geneva.
Three to Read
From cogent analysis to potentially big news that you should keep an eye on, here are a few commentaries and other pieces of writing that I found particularly enlightening.
Urjit Patel, India’s former central bank governor, writes: “In a highly unpredictable time such as this, the RBI should preserve its inflation credibility. This requires making the institution of MPC more enduring, not bypassing it. Decision on monetary policy actions based on voting by committee members, provision of inflation and growth forecasts in the resolution statement, and coordination of rate-setting and liquidity management, need to be adhered to.”
Andy Mukherjee, a columnist at Bloomberg, argues: “Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given little indication that he wants to be India’s version of President Franklin D. Roosevelt. But migrant workers tossed out of cities with no food, shelter or transport won’t return without a New Deal: nest eggs for old age and healthcare. China’s hukou — or city permits — discriminate against rural workers. In India, where urbanization and labor mobility are weapons against built-in caste prejudice, a lifeline to small businesses is an economic and a moral imperative. As long as the recipients become the building blocks of universal social security, it will be $39 billion well spent.”
Milan Vaishnav and Suyash Rai from the Carnegie Endowment for International Piece and its India outpost, Carnegie India, note: “Five weeks ago, the nationwide lockdown announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi placed the Indian economy in cold storage. It also seems to have put politics on ice. As the government prepares to gradually dial down the economic freeze on May 3, politics, too, must emerge from its hibernation. Politics — at its core — is about forging a settlement out of diverse public policy positions... Crises are often moments when political fortunes are made or unmade. Pressing the pause button on politics for too long would be both unwise and unhealthy for the long-term prognosis of Indian democracy.”
Thanks for reading this latest edition of Indialogue. Please let me know if you have any thoughts or feedback by emailing me at aman@amanthakker.com.