India-China Border Tensions, 100+ Days On
With little progress on the border in the last few weeks, more military talks are likely
Hi there, I’m Aman Thakker. Welcome to Indialogue, a newsletter analyzing the biggest policy developments in India. The aim of this newsletter is to provide you with quality analysis every week on what’s going on in India.
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With More Border Talks Likely, The Wider India-China Relationship Continues to Sour
It has been over 100 days after the start of the border tensions (if we count May 5 as the start of the crisis) between India and China.
Things remain largely the same in the various hotspots, as there remains little progress to report on the tensions at Pangong Tso, Gogra-Hot Springs, and Depsang Plains. To recap:
At PP-17A in the Gogra-Hot Springs area: Chinese troops have not yet disengaged.
At Pangong Tso: Despite a partial pullback from Finger 4 to Finger 5, China continues to occupy territory between Fingers 5 and 8, which is 8km inside of what India considers its own territory. It also continues to occupy positions at the ridge lines above Finger 4.
At Depsang Plains (PPs 10, 11, 11A, 12, 13), China has denied Indian troops access to five patrol points, with reports indicating that the ingress is as much as 18km into Indian territory.
However, latest reporting indicates that more military talks - at either the Corps Commander or the Division Commander level - are likely in the coming weeks. No specific dates have been reported so far.
So far, five rounds of talks at the Corps Commander level have been held, with the latest round having taken place on August 2. These talks have been focused on resolving tensions at Pangong Tso and Gogra-Hot Springs, where
One round of talks at the Division Commander level was held on August 8 to resolve the tensions in the Depsang Plains area. However, no progress was reportedly made.
The China Study Group reportedly met again on August 18 to review the latest developments from the military talks.
Foreign Ministry levels from India and China - led by Joint Secretary (East Asia) Naveen Srivastava from the Indian side, and Director General of the Boundary & Oceanic Department, Hong Liang from the Chinese side - met virtually on August 20. They reaffirmed the desire of both sides “to sincerely work towards complete disengagement of the troops along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Western Sector.”
On August 22, top security officials from the Indian government met to discuss the situation in Ladakh. The meeting was attended by:
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh,
National Security Advisor Ajit Doval,
Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Bipin Rawat,
Chief of the Army Staff General Manoj Naravane,
Chief of the Air Staff Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhadauria, and
Chief of the Naval Staff Admiral Karambir Singh.
CDS Gen. Rawat also told the Hindustan Times that if diplomatic talks fell apart, military options remain on the table. He said:
Transgressions along the LAC occur due to differing perceptions about its alignment. Defence services are tasked to monitor and carry out surveillance and prevent such transgressions turning into intrusions. Whole of government approach is adopted to peacefully resolve any such activity and prevent intrusions. Defence services always remain prepared for military actions should all efforts to restore status quo along the LAC do not succeed.
While military talks will likely take place in the coming weeks, the wider India-China relationship continues to sour.
Sushant Singh of The Indian Express reported that “the government is placing visas for persons connected to certain Chinese think tanks, business fora, and advocacy groups under the ‘requirement of prior screening/clearance.’”
Such additional screening and clearance in similar to India’s rules for visas for Pakistan, underscoring the level to which ties have deteriorated.
The Indian government is also reportedly “reviewing 54 memoranda of understanding signed between educational institutions including the Indian Institutes of Technology, Banaras Hindu University, Jawaharlal Nehru University and others with links to the official Chinese language training office, known as Hanban, which runs Confucius Institutes across the world.”
India has also reportedly joined Japan and Australia to begin discussions on a trilateral initiative called the “Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI),” aimed at reducing the three countries’ dependency on China.
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News Roundup
On Sunday, August 23, India crossed three million total confirmed cases of COVID-19, registering over 60,000 new cases for five days in a row last week.
The Cabinet approved the creation of a National Recruitment Agency, which will be tasked with conducting a nationwide Common Eligibility Test, which will be used to recruit for candidates for government jobs, specifically “non-technical” or “Group B and C” roles.
The United States and India will likely hold a 2+2 Dialogue, bringing together the foreign and defense ministers from both countries, in September. The two sides will likely discuss issues of convergence in the Indo-Pacific, as well as future development of the “Quad” grouping of the United States, India, Australia, and Japan. It is also likely that the two countries will announce the signing of the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement, the last of the “enabling” or “foundational” military agreements.
Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla visited Dhaka on August 18 and 19, and met with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
Indian government sources told Nayanima Basu of ThePrint that the meeting between Foreign Secretary Shringla and PM Hasina was “fruitful and excellent.”
The two sides reportedly discussed a proposal to establish a joint consultative commission at the level of the finance ministers to discuss ongoing infrastructure projects, as well as ensuring that Bangladesh is a “priority country” for COVID-19 vaccines that are produced in India.
However, Bangaldeshi media outlets portrayed a much less rosy version of the meeting, and the India-Bangladesh relationship. For example, former Ambassador of Bangladesh to India, M Serajul Islam, wrote that the visit had “misfired.”
The Cabinet has approved a one-time liquidity measure for India’s power distribution companies (DISCOMs) by granting approval to the Power Finance Corporation and Rural Electrification Corporation to provide additional working capital for the DISCOMs.
Rajat Pandit of The Times of India reported that the creation of a Deputy Chief of Army Staff (Strategy), which was called for after the 2017 Doklam crisis, has yet to be created.
The Chairman of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Information Technology, Dr. Shashi Tharoor, announced that the Committee would seek inputs from Facebook following revelations from the Wall Street Journal that Facebook employees had selectively enforced its hate speech rules, particularly by not enforcing those rules against members of the Bharatiya Janata Party who had been flagged internally for promoting or participating in violence.
A serological survey conducted by the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Savitribai Phule Pune University, the Translational Health Science and Technology Institute of Faridabad, the Christian Medical College of Vellore, and Pune Municipal Corporation found that spread of COVID-19 in Pune ranged from 36.1% to 65.4% across the areas of the city sampled in the study. A preliminary report of the study is available here.
The Reserve Bank of India has released a draft framework of a “Self-Regulatory Organisation (SRO) that will be responsible for setting and enforcing rules” of payments and payment systems in India.
The Cabinet has approved a proposal to lease out three airports - those in Jaipur, Guwahati and Thiruvananthapuram - under a Public-Private Partnership model. All three airports will be leased to Adani Enterprises Ltd., who will oversee operation, management, and development of the airports.
Three to Read
From cogent analysis to potentially big news that you should keep an eye on, here are a few commentaries and other pieces of writing that I found particularly enlightening:
Amb. Gautam Bambawale, former Indian ambassador to China and Trustee of the Pune International Centre, argues: “It is of utmost importance for India to send a clear message to China, that we view PLA’s actions in Ladakh as a serious test for the relationship… Through the military action in Ladakh, where the Indian Army fought bravely and heroically, New Delhi has conveyed that it does not accept any of these propositions and that it shall stand up to Chinese bullying. Now, New Delhi needs to ensure that China’s diplomatic playbook does not succeed. India-China relations cannot be business-as-usual.”
Bansari Kamdar, Boston-based multimedia journalist and researcher, writes: “Facebook long ago stopped being a bystander in the South Asian politics. After years of damaging legacy in the region, all eyes turn to the American social media behemoth once again on how and if it will be held accountable for its role in spreading fake news and misinformation. Concrete action needs to be undertaken by Facebook to counter propaganda and incitement to violence on its platforms in South Asia and globally.”
Richard Rossow, Joel Bermudez, and Kriti Upadhyaya, all from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (and colleagues of mine), publish satellite imagery from the Doklam Plateau taken between 2017 and 2019, and write: “Through satellite imagery analysis, this report presents how India faces another front in China’s expansionist territorial ambitions, one which flared up at the India-China-Bhutan trijunction point in 2017. While few Western analysts have considered this area as strategically significant as regions such as the East China Sea, the Straits of Taiwan, and the South China Sea, this view is slowly evolving… Analysis of satellite imagery indicates that Chinese activity in Doklam to date consists of extensive road construction and the establishment of a network of small military facilities, defensive fighting positions, and helicopter landing pads.”
Thanks for reading this latest edition of Indialogue. Please let me know if you have any thoughts or feedback by emailing me at aman@amanthakker.com.