India and Pakistan Announce Ceasefire
The ceasefire comes after over 5,000 ceasefire violations - the highest in 19 years - were recorded at the Line of Control in 2020.
Hi there, I’m Aman Thakker. Welcome to Indialogue, a newsletter analyzing the biggest policy developments in India. The aim of this newsletter is to provide you with quality analysis every week on what’s going on in India.
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India and Pakistan Announce a Ceasefire along the Line of Control
On February 25, the governments of India and Pakistan announced both countries’ armed forces would cease firing across the Line of Control (LOC) effective midnight on 24/25th February.
The move is potentially the most significant attempt by both countries to reduce tensions and violence since they agreed to a ceasefire in 2003.
I say “potentially,” however, because history suggests that ensuring such ceasefires hold is easier said than done. Most recently, the Directors-General of Military Operations (DGMO) from the Indian and Pakistani armies had agreed to respect the 2003 ceasefire in May 2018. However, what succeeded that agreement was the most significant spike in tensions between the two countries in 2019. Following the terrorist attack in Pulwama in Jammu and Kashmir, the two countries traded airstrikes and engaged in their first ever aerial dogfight in nearly 50 years.
The result was that 2020 was the “hottest” year along the LOC in 19 years, with more than 5,000 ceasefire violations recorded. Here’s the data since 2002 from Prof. Happymon Jacob, Associate Professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University:
However, unlike in 2018, this time there are additional factors at play. Both India and Pakistan face economic shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic, which could lead them to seek out a ceasefire to preserve resources that can be used to help ensure a domestic recovery.
The situation is particularly stark for Pakistan, which experienced negative GDP growth rate (-0.4% in FY 2019-2020) for the first time in seven decades. Pakistan’s debt-to-GDP ratio exceeded 87%, and it continues to face pressure from the Financial Action Task Force, which has kept Pakistan on its grey-list due to lack of progress in combating terrorist financing.
Meanwhile, for India, analysts have also pointed out that given the crisis in Eastern Ladakh where Indian troops have faced off against Chinese troops, India may have wanted to engage in diplomacy with Pakistan to prevent a situation where it needed to dedicate significant resources to, both, the Line of Control and the Line of Actual Control.
Experts also suggest that the ceasefire could pave the way for further diplomacy between India and Pakistan. India’s former High Commissioner to Pakistan and the current Director-General of the MEA-run Indian Council of World Affairs, T.C.A. Raghavan, noted that, following the ceasefire agreement, both countries could restore their High Commissioners to their diplomatic missions in each country (Pakistan recalled its representative and expelled India’s High Commissioner in the aftermath of India’s decision to revoke special status for the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir). He also argued both countries could begin cooperating on COVID-19 related issues, while others have noted that a thaw in relations between both countries could see a South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit held (the last summit, slated to be held in Islamabad in 2016 was cancelled after India withdrew from the summit citing Pakistan’s involvement in the Uri terrorist attack, and other South Asian countries also withdrew from the summit).
However, the importance of the ceasefire also has very direct human impacts. Data from the ceasefire violations shows that cross-border firing and shelling has led to significant civilian deaths, especially in the last few years. Since 2017, at least 37 civilians have died each year:
If the ceasefire holds, it could result in lives saved. However, as history shows us, that remains a big if.
Further Reading:
Suhasini Haidar and Dinakar Peri at The Hindu: India, Pakistan agree to observe 2003 ceasefire
Joanna Slater for the Washington Post: India and Pakistan announce cease-fire for first time in nearly 20 years
Sushant Singh, Senior Fellow at the Center for Policy Research: Guns Fall Silent on the LoC But Can Peace follow?
Sameer Lalwani, senior fellow and South Asia director at the Stimson Center: America Can't Ignore the Next Indo-Pakistani Crisis
[PODCAST] Suhasini Haidar of The Hindu in conversation with Amb. T.C.A. Raghavan, Director-General of the Indian Council of World Affairs and Former High Commissioner to Pakistan, and Prof. Happymon Jacob, Associate Professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University: What does the ceasefire agreement mean for the future of India Pakistan relations
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The K. Subrahmanyam Memorial Lecture
On February 25, the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses hosted the K. Subrahmanyam Memorial Lecture in honor of the founding director of the institute, who stands tall as India’s foremost scholar of strategic affairs in India.
The lecture was delivered by Dr. C. Raja Mohan, Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at National University of Singapore. Dr. Raja Mohan, a renowned scholar of strategic affairs in his own right, was also a protégé of Mr. Subrahmanyam. The title of his lecture was “When to Intervene: Using Force Beyond Borders.”
In my academic pursuits, I have attempted to engage as deeply as possible with the works for Mr. Subrahmanyam, relying on his work extensively on my Master’s dissertation exploring to what extent India has a “grand strategy.” Moreover, Dr. Raja Mohan’s scholarship and writings have long been (and continue to be) must-reads for me to understand India’s foreign policy. As such, listening to this superb lecture was particularly enlightening.
I highly recommend watching the lecture, available below:
News Roundup
Prime Minister Narendra Modi received his first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine at the All India Institute for Medical Science (AIIMS) in New Delhi on the morning of March 1, 2021. His vaccination marks the next phase of India’s vaccination campaign, where all those above 60 years of age, or those above 45 years age with co-morbidities, are eligible to be vaccinated.
External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar spoke on the phone with State Councillor and Foreign Minister of China Wang Yi on February 25, marking the first call between the two ministers since they met in Moscow in September 2020. The two ministers reviewed progress on the disengagement at Pangong Tso and agreed to “quickly resolve the remaining issues along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh.” The full readout of the call from the Ministry of External Affairs is available here.
David Sanger and Emily Schmall of The New York Times reported that a study from Recorded Future, a U.S.-based company studying the use of the internet bhy state actors, found that Chinese malware entered India’s control systems that manage electric supply across the country, and could be linked to a blackout in Mumbai that occurred on October 13, 2020. The report suggests that such cyber activity took place after the violent incident in the Galwan Valley where Indian and Chinese troops lost their lives, and while Indian and Chinese troops continued to face off in Eastern Ladakh.
The Election Commission of India announced the schedule for the upcoming elections to the state legislative assemblies of Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Puducherry.
Voting in Assam will take place in three phases, held on March 27, April 1, and April 6 respectively;
Voting in Kerala will take place in one phase held on April 6;
Voting in Puducherry will take place in one phase held on April 6;
Voting in Tamil Nadu will take place in one phase held on April 6;
Voting in West Bengal will take place in eight phases, held on March 27, April 1, April 6, April 10, April 17, April 22, April 26, and April 29;
Counting of all votes in all five elections will take place on May 2.
The Cabinet approved Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Schemes for the IT Hardware and Pharmaceutical sectors. The PLI scheme aims to boost domestic manufacturing in India by providing companies with incentives on incremental sales from products manufactured in India. For the IT Hardware sector, the Centre has set aside Rs. 7325 crore ($995 million) in incentives over a period of four years, while for the Pharmaceuticals sectors, the Centre has allocated Rs. 15,000 crore ($2.04 billion) in incentives over eight years.
The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology has issued its Information Technology (Intermediary Guidelines and Digital Media Ethics Code) Rules 2021, which call upon social media, digital media, and other over-the-top service companies to establish a grievance redressal mechanism to resolve complaints from the users or victims, to identify the originator of information on their sites, and to remove all unlawful information. The government also two categories of social media intermediaries, and note that social media companies with higher user bases will follow additional requirements. The rules will go into effect in three months.
The Ministry of Finance lifted restrictions on private-banks that prevented them from conducting “Government-related banking transactions such as taxes and other revenue payment facilities, pension payments, small savings schemes, etc.”
Nearly four months after the Ministries of Education and External Affairs issued an order requiring all event organizers to seek governmental permission before hosting online events or conferences related to India’s internal matters (such as security of state, border, northeast states, J&K, or Ladakh), the Ministry of External Affairs has reportedly withdrawn these rules. The order had attracted criticism from academics in India and abroad.
India’s Chief Economic Advisor Dr. K.V. Subramanian said that India’s monetary policy framework, which established an inflation targeting range of between 2% and 6%, needs to be updated. The current policy framework is set to expire on March 31, 2021.
In an affidavit filed before the Delhi High Court, the government of India has expressed opposition to same-sex marriages, stating that “While a marriage may be between two private individuals having a profound impact on their private lives, it cannot be relegated to merely a concept within the domain of privacy of an individual… Living together as partners & having sexual relationship by same sex individual is not comparable with Indian family unit concept of a husband, wife & children which necessarily presuppose a biological man as 'husband', a biological woman as 'wife' and children born out of union.”
Three to Read
From cogent analysis to potentially big news that you should keep an eye on, here are a few commentaries and other pieces of writing that I found particularly enlightening:
Dr. Kartikeya Singh, Director of Programmes at SED Fund and senior associate (non-resident) at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, outlines a “green recovery” agenda for India post-COVID-19: “The post-Covid era requires every nation to judiciously use its limited resources to pivot rapidly toward a growth path that not only creates livelihood opportunities but does so keeping in mind that we must avoid triggering an even greater fallout from catastrophic climate change. India has much to lose from a changing climate and also much to gain in terms of social, economic, and ecological security from transitioning toward a climate resilient economy.”
Dr. Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Distinguished Fellow and Head of the Nuclear and Space Policy Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation, writes: “India in recent years has stepped up strategic outreach to its Indian Ocean partners. Both the Maldives and Mauritius have been key in pursuing India’s maritime security agenda. Thus, it was not a surprise that Indian Foreign Minister Dr. S Jaishankar went on a four-day visit to the Maldives and Mauritius February 20-23... India appears to be maintaining a close watch on China’s growing presence and influence in the Indian Ocean region. This in fact has prompted New Delhi to improve its strategic game in engaging its Indian Ocean neighbors. But India’s challenge has always been in scaling up the aid and assistance sufficiently to take advantage of the opportunities and goodwill that exist in these countries, especially compared to what China can offer. Nevertheless, for the time being, Maldives and Mauritius appear to be success stories in Indian outreach in the region.”
Dhruva Jaishankar, Executive Director of the Observer Research Foundation America (ORF America), argues: “From an Indian standpoint, the State of Southeast Asia: 2021 survey conducted by the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute presents a sobering picture. More Southeast Asian respondents expressed more confidence than no confidence in the international roles played by Japan (a net +50.6 per cent), the European Union (+21.4 per cent), and the United States (+17 per cent). On the other hand, negative perceptions dogged India – 19.8 per cent of respondents expressed confidence in India’s global role against 50.3 per cent who expressed the contrary, giving New Delhi a negative 30.5 per cent score.”
Thanks for reading this latest edition of Indialogue. Please let me know if you have any thoughts or feedback by emailing me at aman@amanthakker.com.