COVID-19 in India: Two Million Cases
The pace of new COVID-19 cases is faster than the United States and Brazil
Hi there, I’m Aman Thakker. Welcome to Indialogue, a newsletter analyzing the biggest policy developments in India. The aim of this newsletter is to provide you with quality analysis every week on what’s going on in India.
Thank you very much for subscribing. My writing, and this newsletter, benefits from your feedback, so please do not hesitate to send any suggestions, critiques, or ideas to aman@amanthakker.com.
From One to Two Million Cases COVID-19 in 20 Days
Only three weeks ago, I wrote to all of you about how India had crossed a milestone it had hoped to avoid reaching in the first place: registering one million total cases of COVID-19. Just twenty days later, India has doubled that figure, now topping two million confirmed cases of COVID-19.
Such an effective doubling rate - twenty days - is faster than the only two countries that have a higher case figure: the United States and Brazil. That fact, combined with the fact that India’s curve of new cases per day shows no signs of flattening, demonstrates why India’s fight against this virus is far from over.
Several of the major factors that led India reaching this point remain largely the same as three weeks ago. The lockdown was only a blunt tool to slow the spread of the infections, and India needed more to stop the spread of the virus. This is not to say that the lockdown was the wrong decision. On the contrary, I have defended (and continue to defend) the decision to lockdown early as one that was necessary. However, it’s emerging from the lockdown where the central government’s policy choices need to be analyzed. The fact that 90% of India’s two million cases were registered after the nationwide lockdown was lifted only adds more credence to the need to examine this period more closely.
As countries around the world emerged from their respective lockdown, public health experts of all stripes noted that what they needed as they reopened was a comprehensive test, trace, and isolate program. The best responses almost inevitably used the time of lockdown - when the spread was low - to put such a program in place. However, that’s where India faltered. The day India announced that the nationwide lockdown would end - May 30 - India only tested 0.08 samples per 1,000 people. While testing has now picked up pace, the raw numbers of tests per day are similar to the level of daily testing in the United States, which effectively means it tests 1/4 less as a proportion of population. A recent study (although pre-print and not yet peer reviewed) found that at the national level, there was a no “unified framework for reporting COVID-19 data in India,” which meant that there was too much variance across states in the quality of data from not only from testing, but also tracing and isolation.
In short, India’s test, trace, and isolate efforts are falling short. As Dr. Shaheed Jamil, member of National Academy of Sciences, India, Indian Academy of Sciences, and Indian National Science Academy, says: “Testing is below par and variable across the country. Tracing is patchy and isolation is not being followed effectively."
However, there are also three emerging trends in the last three weeks that we should take note of. The first is that India’s key hotspots are changing. Until a few weeks ago, the National Capital Region (Delhi and surrounding areas), as well as the states of Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu were the key hotspots. While Maharashtra remains the worst-hit state in India, the last few weeks have seen states such as Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Odisha.
This shift is which states are registered the most cases is linked to a second trend - the shift in the rapid spread of cases from India’s large, metropolitan cities to rural areas. To use Andhra Pradesh as but one example, eight districts from the state rank among the 20-worst hit districts. Of those eight districts, seven are considered “rural” districts. Public health experts say that these spike in cases in rural areas are linked to the return of migrant workers from cities. While many have pointed out that it has been some time since migrant workers returned to their villages, experts suggest that the virus has been slow to spread in these areas because there are “more open spaces, you travel over longer distances.” However, that doesn’t change the fact that the virus is now there.
Finally, the last trend, and arguably the most concerning from a public policy perspective, is the center’s approach to continue heedlessly towards the process of “unlocking” or easing restrictions around the country. The Ministry of Home Affairs announced new guidelines to proceed to the third stage of “Unlock”-ing India. These involved doing away with restrictions on all activities except metro rail operations, Metro Rail, indoor entertaining (such as cinemas, bars, swimming pools, etc.), and large gathers for political, social, or religious reasons.
India’s fight against COVID-19 is far from over. And with the peak of the infection anywhere from several weeks (mid-September) to a few months away (in November), the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare continues to insist that there is “no community spread” in India. If only wishing made it so.
If you would like to support Indialogue, please consider sharing the newsletter with others who might enjoy it using the button below!
What’s the Latest on the India-China Disengagement Process?
Progress continues to be incredibly slow, as the disengagement process basically grinds to a halt in Pangong Tso, Gogra-Hot Springs, and Depsang Plains
A marathon meeting at the Corps Commanders level - the fifth such meeting between Indian and Chinese military leaders at the border - held on August 2 did not result in any breakthrough.
The China Study Group, a high-level government body led by India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, met on August 4 to review the outcome of the August 2 meeting, and to convey next steps to the Indian Army.
Sushant Singh and Krishn Kaushik of The Indian Express reported that while the disengagement process so far was based on India and China mutually taking steps back to create a buffer zone at the LAC, such a process was not possible now, particularly in Pangong Tso.
At Pangong Tso, the Indian perception is that China has made an incursion 8km into Indian territory.
A step back, therefore, would mean China returning to its side of the LAC (per India’s perception), but India retreating from territory that it has not only claimed, but controlled till date.
The Ministry of Defense, on August 6, uploaded a document confirming for the first time that China had transgressed into Indian territory “in the areas of Kurang Nala, Gogra and north bank of Pangong Tso on May 17-18.” However, it later took down the document.
Following the lack of progress in talks at the Corps Commander level, a meeting between Indian and Chinese military leaders at the division commander/Major General level was scheduled at the Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO)-Tianwendian border meeting point on the LAC for Saturday, August 8.
The August 8 Major Generals meeting was focused on reducing tensions in the Depsang Plains area, where China has blocked Indian troops from patrolling the border and accessing Patrolling Point (PP)-10, PP-11, PP-11A, PP-12 and PP-13. No other friction points, such as Pangong Tso or Hot Springs, were reportedly discussed in this meeting.
On Secularism, Temple Politics, and Hindu Nationalism
There has been a lot of commentary this week, following the Prime Minister’s participation in a ceremony to lay a foundation stone at the planned temple for the Hindu Lord Ram in Ayodhya. The construction of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya has been controversial since at least the 19th century, with Hindu religious organizations claiming that the Babri Masjid - built by Mughal Emperor Babur in the 1500s - was built upon a pre-existing temple celebrating the birthplace of Lord Ram. On December 6, 1992, a group of volunteers belonging to several Hindu nationalist organizations destroyed the mosque.
Since then, a legal battle over the rights to the title for the land has been underway. On November 9, 2019, the Supreme Court of India ordered that the land be handed over to a trust to build a Hindu temple dedicated to Lord Ram, and that an alternative plot of twice the size be given for the construction of a mosque. It is for the construction of that temple to Lord Ram that Prime Minister Modi laid the foundation stone on August 5.
Rather than me attempting to analyze or write on these issues, I thought it best to outline some resources that can not only help all of us better understand what happened, but also the issues at stake. So here is a list of primary sources, books, papers, and op-eds that I thought everyone should consider reading to understand, both, the Ram Temple-Babri Masjid dispute, as well as the larger ideas of secularism, Hindu Nationalism, as well as the intersection of politics and religion in India.
Primary Sources
Swami Vivekananda’s “India’s message to the world”
Vinayak Damodar Savarkar’s “Essential of Hindutva”
The Constituent Assembly Debates On 6 December, 1948 (on secularism and religion)
Jawaharlal Nehru’s “The Discovery of India” (particularly pages 72-75)
Academic Works
Christophe Jaffrelot’s “The Hindu Nationalist Movement in India”
David Ludden’s “Making India Hindu: Religion, Community and the Politics of Democracy in India”
Subrata Kumar Mitra’s “De-secularising the State: Religion and Politics in India After Independence” in Comparative Studies in Society and History
Arvind Sharma’s “Hinduism and Secularism: After Ayodhya”
Peter Van der Veer’s “God must be liberated!” A Hindu Liberation Movement in Ayodhya” in Modern Asian Studies
Thomas Blom Hansen’s “The Saffron Wave: Democracy and Hindu Nationalism in Modern India”
Sumathi Ramaswamy’s “The Goddess and the Nation: Mapping Mother India”
Ashutosh Varshney’s “Ethnic conflict and civic life: Hindus and Muslims in India”
Op-Eds from This Week
Pratap Bhanu Mehta: “Ayodhya’s Ram temple is first real colonisation of Hinduism by political power”
Rana Ayyub: “India marks another day of erasure and insult against its Muslim citizens”
Mukul Kesavan: “Against forgetting The need to remember the 6th of December”
News Roundup
The government of Pakistan released a new “political map” of Pakistan which shows Sir Creek and the former princely state of Junagadh in Gujarat as Pakistani territory, and lists the union territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh as “Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir.” India’s Ministry of External Affairs described the map as “an exercise in political absurdity” that “have neither legal validity nor international credibility.”
The President of India accepted the resignation of Girish Chandra Murmu as Lieutenant Governor of Jammu and Kashmir, and, in his place, has appointed Manoj Sinha, former BJP politician and Minister of State in Prime Minister Modi’s first government (2014-2019). Mr Murmu has since assumed his new role as Comptroller and Auditor General of India.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on August 5. The two foreign ministers “shared assessments on regional and global issues including South Asia, Afghanistan, Indo-Pacific & beyond” and “discussed meeting in the Quad format in the near future.”
The Ministry of Defense has released a list of 101 defense-related items which will be embargoed for import as part of the ministry’s support for the AtmaNirbhar Bharat, or Self-Reliant India, scheme. The full list of embargoed items is available here, and includes “weapon systems like artillery guns, assault rifles, corvettes, sonar systems, transport aircrafts, light combat helicopters, [and] radars.”
The Chairman and Ranking Member, Representatives Elliot Engel and Michael McCaul respectively, wrote a letter to the External Affairs Minister to express bipartisan support for the U.S.-India relationship. The letter, sent on the one-year anniversary of the revocation of Article 370, noted with concern that “conditions in Jammu and Kashmir have not normalized.”
A “small tri-services contingent,” including 150 Army personnel and a smaller number of personnel from the Navy and Air Force, will participate in the Russian Kavkaz 2020 exercise scheduled to be held from September 15 to 26 in Astrakhan in southern Russia. In addition to India, at least 18 countries, including China, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, and the five Central Asian republics, will participate in the exercise.
The External Affairs Minister participated in a videoconference with his counterparts from Australia, South Korea, Brazil, Israel, and the United States to discuss ways to deepen cooperation between the democracies in responding to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. A previous such meeting on COVID-19 cooperation was held with representatives from all six countries, as well as the Japanese foreign minister, in May 2020.
The Ministry of Defense released a draft of its latest Defence Production and Export Promotion Policy 2020. Among the goals outlined in the new policy is an objective to achieve a turnover of $25 billion (Rs 1,75,000 crores), including export of $5 billion (Rs 35,000 crore), in aerospace and defense goods and services by 2025.
Three to Read
From cogent analysis to potentially big news that you should keep an eye on, here are a few commentaries and other pieces of writing that I found particularly enlightening:
Amb. Harsh Vardhan Shringla, India’s Foreign Secretary, writes: “There has also been no let-up in our diplomatic outreach during the pandemic… the PM has spoken to his counterparts from 61 countries during this period. The external affairs minister has spoken to foreign ministers from 77 countries. We have kept open channels of virtual communication to strengthen partnerships and deal with situations that require diplomatic engagement. We have been constantly adjusting, adapting and innovating to deal with the changed reality, particularly in our engagement with the world. And in the process, we have been successful in elevating India’s profile as a constructive and dependable actor on the global stage.”
Sylvia Mishra, a researcher based in Washington, D.C., and Dr. Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Distinguished Fellow & Head, Nuclear & Space Policy Initiative at the Observer Research Foundation, argue: “During the last three months, for instance, in several of the conferences and webinars, it is increasingly evident that the composition of the panelists is heavily skewed and mostly consists of men. “Manel” is a term that is often used to refer a panel which consists entirely of men. The idea of manels is not new. Nor are the efforts to call out manels. Repeated efforts to engage organisers and convey the message of making panels more diverse has met with scant success. The absence of women means that significant expertise is lost simply because of gender bias. Manels also suffer from absence of balance and inclusiveness. Diversity, balance and inclusiveness are critical for more nuanced debates and discussions on any subject... This is particular true in foreign policy and security studies, a field dominated by men around the world. But it’s time for change.”
Amb. Syed Akbaruddin, India’s former Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations, writes about India’s diplomatic strategy to China and Pakistan’s efforts to raise the Kashmir issue at the United Nations: “The same talk that we hear now on India-China issues was voiced then. Can India take on an economy five times its size? Can actions evoking criticism domestically be shielded from global scrutiny? Will a global power, which had sewn up vast swathes with its Belt and Road Initiative, not get broad support against a mid-sized delegation with limited resources? A blow-by-blow account is left for another time. Suffice it to say that then, as now, hubris of global overreach was on display. Then, as now, quiet diplomacy was in play. Then, as now, despite the disparity in the power equation, some stay silent. Then, as now, key partners weigh in our favour. The closed-door outcome was better than expected. The public diplomacy victory was the icing on the cake.”
Thanks for reading this latest edition of Indialogue. Please let me know if you have any thoughts or feedback by emailing me at aman@amanthakker.com.